Impact quantification of hypothesized attack scenarios on bus differential relays

Bulbul, Rashiduzzaman; Gong, Yu; Ten, Chee‐Wooi; Ginter, Andrew; Mei, Shengwei

doi:10.1109/pscc.2014.7038497

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…• The risk index studies [28]- [31], using the extended combination method and reverse pyramid model (RPM), generate the risk-based ''bottleneck list.'' The ''critical'' combinations would lead to the potential uncertainty with identified unstable cases of the power system in steady-state analysis.…”

Section: Contributions To Cps-related Insurancementioning

confidence: 99%

Premium Calculation for Insurance Businesses Based on Cyber Risks in IP-Based Power Substations

Yang

Yun²,

Campbell³

et al. 2020

IEEE Access

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Insurance is a promising risk transfer tool against switching cyberattacks on power grids that can disrupt operation and potentially lead to widespread outages. This paper emphasizes on a framework of premium calculation for cyber insurance businesses by modeling potential electronic intrusion with steadystate simulation results and its direct hypothesized impacts. The proposed actuarial framework models the operational monetary losses with the hypothesized power outages based on the cyber-reliability assessment and its expected mean time to restore power (MTTRP). The ruin probability is employed as the fundamental formula to determine the feasible insurance premium pool. Hypothesized spatial correlation studies on multiple substation contingencies associated with switching attacks have shown estimated operational losses and expected duration of power restoration, which is translated into the calculation of insurance premium. The proposed actuarial framework is validated using generalized IEEE test cases with modified parameters on substations. The potential implications of grid's hypothetical scenarios are discussed.INDEX TERMS Cyber-physical system, disruptive switching attack, enterprise risk management, insurance premium, power outages, ruin probability.

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Section: Contributions To Cps-related Insurancementioning

confidence: 99%

Premium Calculation for Insurance Businesses Based on Cyber Risks in IP-Based Power Substations

Yang

Yun²,

Campbell³

et al. 2020

IEEE Access

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“…Combinatorial substation outages are the cyber-contingency analysis that enumerates the worst-case scenarios. Since the solution space of the sum of S-select-k problem can be extremely large, a systematic elimination approach using power flow modules is used to validate each combination in order to capture the worst combinations [55]- [58]. This process eliminates insignificant combinations, enumerating from the first-level substation list of the RPM.…”

Section: ) Cyber-related Contingenciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This section provides an intuition of dynamic impact verification from stead-state impact enumerations. While the reverse pyramid model (RPM) [55], [56], [58] significantly reduces the number of combinations to consider, substation outage combinations may not be considered critical without dynamic simulation as to the impact of such outages. Part of the reason is that steady-state analysis is based only on power-flow convergence solutions, which may not suggest that a combination of outages can lead to system instability.…”

Section: B Dynamic Impact Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

Ten

Yamashita

Yang

et al. 2018

IEEE Trans. Smart Grid

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The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies.

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“…Since the solution space of the sum of S-select-k problem can be extremely large, a systematic elimination approach using power flow module is used to validate each combination in order to capture the worst combinations [8], [9], [17]. This process eliminates insignificant combinations, enumerating from the first-level substation list of the RPM.…”

Section: Modified Rpm Incorporating Mttcmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent development includes impact analysis of hypothesized attack scenarios on bus differential relays, which is related to substation outage scenarios [9]. While reliability of physical power system has been studied [10], the vulnerabilityreliability combined attributes indicating the compromised rate remains in the early stage [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prioritization of MTTC-based combinatorial evaluation for hypothesized substations outages

Bulbul

Ten

Wang

2015

2015 IEEE Power &Amp; Energy Society General Meeting

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Exhaustive enumeration of a S-select-k problem for hypothesized substations outages can be practically infeasible due to exponential growth of combinations as both S and k numbers increase. This enumeration of worst-case substations scenarios from the large set, however, can be improved based on the initial selection sets with the root nodes and segments. In this paper, the previous work of the reverse pyramid model (RPM) is enhanced with prioritization of root nodes and defined segmentations of substation list based on mean-time-to-compromise (MTTC) value that is associated with each substation. Root nodes are selected based on the threshold values of the substation ranking on MTTC values and are segmented accordingly from the root node set. Each segmentation is then being enumerated with S-select-k module to identify worst-case scenarios. The lowest threshold value on the list, e.g., a substation with no assignment of MTTC or extremely low number, is completely eliminated. Simulation shows that this approach demonstrates similar outcome of the risk indices among all randomly generated MTTC of the IEEE 30-bus system.

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Impact quantification of hypothesized attack scenarios on bus differential relays

Cited by 13 publications

References 18 publications

Premium Calculation for Insurance Businesses Based on Cyber Risks in IP-Based Power Substations

Premium Calculation for Insurance Businesses Based on Cyber Risks in IP-Based Power Substations

Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

Prioritization of MTTC-based combinatorial evaluation for hypothesized substations outages

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