Impact on the power mix and economy of Japan under a 2050 carbon-neutral scenario: Analysis using the E3ME macro-econometric model

Lee, Soocheol; He, Yanmin; Suk, Sunhee; Morotomi, Toru; Chewpreecha, Unnada

doi:10.1080/14693062.2022.2061406

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Finally, Lee et al [6] is the most relevant study for this research. They employed the E3ME model to explore the macroeconomic implications of achieving carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 and how Japan's energy mix will transform.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Carbon Neutrality on the Economy and Industry Assuming Japan’s Achievement of 2030 Power Mix Plan: A 2050 Perspective Based on the E3ME Macro-Econometric Model

Kato,

Lee,

et al. 2023

Energies

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Japan faces the challenge of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth and energy security. This study aims to analyze the potential impact on Japan’s economy and industries if the country achieves its 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target, implements a power mix plan to meet that target, and simultaneously pursues the Growth Strategy Council’s proposal for a power mix plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The study also investigates an alternative carbon neutrality pathway without nuclear power. The research question is whether these low-carbon policies can lead to both economic growth and decarbonization in Japan. To address this question, the study uses the E3ME-FTT macroeconomic model with endogenous technology diffusion to simulate different policy scenarios and assess their economic and environmental impacts. The results indicate that by 2050, Japan could meet its carbon neutrality target, and at the same time, the GDP could increase by approximately 3% compared with the baseline scenario, with or without nuclear power. This growth is expected to occur in several sectors due to increased demand for decarbonization-related investments and strong private consumption. Additionally, the overall economy is expected to benefit from the increased demand for low-carbon and decarbonization-related investments, reduced costs associated with renewable energy generation, and an improved trade balance resulting from a significant decrease in fossil fuel imports.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Carbon Neutrality on the Economy and Industry Assuming Japan’s Achievement of 2030 Power Mix Plan: A 2050 Perspective Based on the E3ME Macro-Econometric Model

Kato,

Lee,

et al. 2023

Energies

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“…To mitigate this, the power sector is exposed to policies to facilitate a transition to low-carbon electricity production that is applied in tandem to all policy scenarios. These policy packages are based on those of Lee et al [47], who apply policy packages to simulate the decarbonization of the power sector in Japan. Here, we extend their policies to China and Korea (Table 4).…”

Section: Financialization Of Policy Costs Via Other Fiscal Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon-Neutral Steel Production and Its Impact on the Economies of China, Japan, and Korea: A Simulation with E3ME-FTT:Steel

Vercoulen

Lee

et al. 2023

Energies

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The iron and steel industry is a large emitter of CO2 globally. This is especially true for the iron and steel industries in China, Japan, and Korea due to their production volumes and the prevalence of carbon-based steel production. With few low-carbon and commercially available alternatives, the iron and steel industry is truly a hard-to-abate sector. Each of the countries of interest have committed to a net-zero future involving the mitigation of emissions from steel production. However, few studies have investigated the means by which to achieve decarbonization beyond the inclusion of price signalling policies (e.g., carbon tax or emission trading schemes). Here, we use E3ME-FTT:Steel to simulate technology diffusion in the ISI under several policy environments and we investigate the likely impacts on the wider economy. The results show that penalizing carbon intensive processes can incentivize a transition towards scrap recycling, but it is relatively unsuccessful in aiding the uptake of low carbon primary steelmaking. A combination of support and penalizing policies can achieve deep decarbonisation (>80% emission reduction compared with the baseline). Mitigating the emissions in the iron and steel industry can lead to economic benefits in terms of GDP (China: +0.8%; Japan: +1.3%; Korea: +0.1%), and employment (Japan: +0.7%; Korea: +0.3%) with China, where job losses in the coal sector would negate job gains elsewhere, as the exception.

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“…Similarly, Sievers et al (2019) project a 1.6% increase in GDP versus a reference scenario in Germany from 2010 to 2030 as a result of energy sector decarbonisation. Elsewhere, Lee et al (2022) analyse two Net Zero policy scenarios for Japan (with and without nuclear power phase out), nding that by 2050 decarbonisation across the energy system could add 4%-4.5% to GDP compared to a reference scenario.…”

Section: Al 2022)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table2focus on the impacts of decarbonisation in the power sector alone, but several studies consider other energy sectors such as heat, transport and industry(Sievers et al, 2019;Füllemann et al, 2020;Lee et al, 2022). An important variation between the studies relates to how they use counterfactuals to calculate net employment impacts.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In terms of methods, input-output analysis is most commonly used ( ve studies) followed by CGE models (three studies), including Perrier and Quirion (2018) who combine both model types Sievers et al (2019). andLee et al (2022) apply a macro-economic and macro-econometric model respectively. Five of the identi ed documents account for direct, indirect and induced employment; ve studies consider direct and indirect but not induced jobs;…”

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Quantity and quality of job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency: A review of international evidence

Hanna

Heptonstall

Groß

2023

Preprint

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In this paper we present findings from a systematic review on job creation, quality, and skills, focusing on decarbonisation in the energy sector. We compare a range of gross job employment factors which indicate that overall, investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency can deliver more jobs than gas or coal power generation. In addition, we review a subset of recent studies which estimate the net employment effects of decarbonisation in the energy sector at a national scale, across various international contexts. These national studies largely agree that the most likely outcome over the next few decades is a modest net positive creation of jobs and moderate economic growth. In certain regions within these countries, jobs in fossil fuel industries may be lost faster than the pace at which low carbon energy sectors can offer new employment. There may be mismatches between regions where displaced workers live and where new opportunities become available, which may be a barrier to accepting alternative employment even if former workers have the requisite skills. In these cases national government transition plans are recommended, co-ordinated with local governments, to manage the impacts of displacement from carbon intensive sectors and respond to the need to build a new low carbon workforce including through skills development and training. We highlight a lack of metrics and data in the literature on job quality, skills, and the geographic distribution of employment impacts in decarbonising energy systems, and these should be priority areas for further research.

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Impact on the power mix and economy of Japan under a 2050 carbon-neutral scenario: Analysis using the E3ME macro-econometric model

Cited by 9 publications

References 4 publications

Impact of Carbon Neutrality on the Economy and Industry Assuming Japan’s Achievement of 2030 Power Mix Plan: A 2050 Perspective Based on the E3ME Macro-Econometric Model

Impact of Carbon Neutrality on the Economy and Industry Assuming Japan’s Achievement of 2030 Power Mix Plan: A 2050 Perspective Based on the E3ME Macro-Econometric Model

Carbon-Neutral Steel Production and Its Impact on the Economies of China, Japan, and Korea: A Simulation with E3ME-FTT:Steel

Quantity and quality of job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency: A review of international evidence

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