Impact of Wind, Solar, and Other Factors on Wholesale Power Prices: An Historical Analysis—2008 through 2017

Mills, Andrew; Millstein, Dev; Wiser, Ryan; Seel, Joachim; Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Jeong, Seongeun; Gorman, Will

doi:10.2172/1574352

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Beyond curtailment issues, increased variable generation impacts wholesale electricity pricing patterns and has led to an increased frequency of negative pricing events during times of high variable generation combined with relatively low electricity demand [7], for example during sunny spring days in California. Negative pricing episodes associated with increased variable generation are seen elsewhere in the U.S. as well as in Europe [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

Millstein

Dobson

Jeong

2020

Journal of Energy Resources Technology

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Geothermal power plants have typically been operated as base-load plants. The recent expansion of wind and solar power generation creates a potential opportunity to increase the value of geothermal generation through flexible operations. In recent years, California's wholesale electricity markets have exhibited frequent, short-term periods of negative pricing, indicating that additional flexibility would be valued in the market. Here we examine local nodal hourly price records at all geothermal plants located in the western United States. We describe how the frequency and temporal characteristics of negative pricing episodes have changed over recent years. Based on these price series, we calculate the value of multiple strategies of flexible operations. Additionally, we use the estimates of future prices, developed through a capacity-expansion model and a dispatch model, to explore how the value of such flexible operations might change along with further penetration of variable renewable power sources. Based on the historical pricing records, we find that simple curtailment of operations during negative pricing episodes could increase the average energy value by 1 to 2 /MWh and that allowing for increased production during limited high priced hours, in addition to curtailment during negative priced hours, could potentially double the increase in value (up to 4/MWh). The forward-looking simulations indicate reduced values of flexibility from geothermal power despite higher penetrations of variable renewable energy. This result highlights the possibility that increasing flexibility options throughout the system may counteract the influence of increased variable renewable energy deployment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

Millstein

Dobson

Jeong

2020

Journal of Energy Resources Technology

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“…Historical studies 12 on electricity prices that cover multiple regions of the United States come to similar conclusions. We are going through a one-time transition of added nondispatchable wind and solar with low LCOEs in those parts of the country with high-quality wind and solar resources.…”

Section: Iib2 Addition Of Nondispatchable Wind and Solarmentioning

confidence: 70%

Market Basis for Salt-Cooled Reactors: Dispatchable Heat, Hydrogen, and Electricity with Assured Peak Power Capacity

Forsberg

2020

Nuclear Technology

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Energy markets are changing because of (1) the addition of nondispatchable wind and solar electric generating capacity and (2) the goal of a low-carbon energy system. The large-scale addition of wind and solar photovoltaics results in low wholesale electricity prices at times of high wind and solar output and high prices at times of low wind and solar input. The goal of a low-carbon energy system requires a replacement energy production system with assured peak energy production capacity. To minimize costs, capital-intensive nuclear reactors should operate at base load. To maximize revenue (minimize sales at times of low prices and maximize sales at times of high prices), the power cycle should provide variable heat and electricity. This requires the power cycle to (1) include heat storage that enables peak heat and electricity output that may be several times base-load reactor output and (2) provide assured peak power production. Assured peak power production requires the capability to efficiently burn lowcarbon fuels such as hydrogen and biofuels. Alternatively, nuclear systems with base-load reactors can be built to produce peak electricity and storable hydrogen for industry, biofuels, and other markets. All power reactors with appropriate system designs can meet these requirements. The lowest-cost technologies for heat storage, assured peak power production, and hydrogen production require high-temperature heat. This economically favors salt-cooled reactors with the average temperature of delivered heat of about 650°C versus heat delivered at lower average temperatures from other reactors such as light water reactors: 280°C, sodium-cooled reactors: 500°C, and high-temperature helium-cooled reactors: 550°C. Salt-cooled reactors include (1) Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHRs) with solid fuel and clean salt, (2) Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) with fuel dissolved in the salt, and (3) fusion reactors with salt blankets. Future energy markets, nuclear systems (heat storage, assured peak energy production capacity, and hydrogen production) designed for such markets and the power cycle technologies that economically favor salt reactors are described.

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“…From 2012 through 2019, the annual energy value of solar ranged from $24/MWh to $71/MWh and generally varied over time in concert with changes in annual average wholesale energy prices (decreasing with falling electricity prices since 2014, though 2018 brought a moderate boost as electricity prices rose again). The main driver of changes in wholesale prices since 2014 was changes in natural gas prices, though secondary fundamental drivers-such as generation mix, other fuel price changes, demand growth, and even solar deployment-contributed to price changes (Mills et al 2019). , for example, find that increased solar deployment decreased average annual wholesale prices by about $2/MWh in CAISO.…”

Section: Energy Valuementioning

confidence: 99%

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2019

Mills

Seel

Millstein

et al. 2021

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Impact of Wind, Solar, and Other Factors on Wholesale Power Prices: An Historical Analysis—2008 through 2017

Abstract: Woo et al.

Cited by 14 publications

References 18 publications

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

Market Basis for Salt-Cooled Reactors: Dispatchable Heat, Hydrogen, and Electricity with Assured Peak Power Capacity

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2019

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