Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever

Dénes, Attila; Ibrahim, Mahmoud A.; Oluoch, Lillian; Tekeli, Miklós; Tekeli, Tamás

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-53062-z

Cited by 23 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…We emphasize that a similar model was established and studied in Dénes et al. ( 2019 ), which also included differentiation of the two sexes. However, no stability analysis was performed in that paper, only numerical results were presented.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…In Dénes et al. ( 2019 ) a non-autonomous model was established considering most of the important features regarding Zika transmission: sexual and vector-borne transmission, the role of asymptomatically infected humans, the prolonged period of infectiousness after recovery and assessed the importance of the seasonality of weather. In (Ibrahim and Dénes 2019 ), this model was extended to improve the estimation of microcephaly risk due to Zika.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

Ibrahim

Dénes

2021

Bull Math Biol

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We present a compartmental population model for the spread of Zika virus disease including sexual and vectorial transmission as well as asymptomatic carriers. We apply a non-autonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth, death and biting rates to integrate the impact of the periodicity of weather on the spread of Zika. We define the basic reproduction number $${\mathscr {R}}_{0}$$ R 0 as the spectral radius of a linear integral operator and show that the global dynamics is determined by this threshold parameter: If $${\mathscr {R}}_0 < 1,$$ R 0 < 1 , then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable, while if $${\mathscr {R}}_0 > 1,$$ R 0 > 1 , then the disease persists. We show numerical examples to study what kind of parameter changes might lead to a periodic recurrence of Zika.

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Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

Ibrahim

Dénes

2021

Bull Math Biol

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“…To perform a sensitivity analysis of the modelled parameters, we used the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) technique 44 , 45 . Then, we used Latin hypercube sampling (l h), which is a statistical Monte Carlo sampling technique, to sample the parameters using the lhs package in R 46 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Chadsuthi

Chalvet‐Monfray

Wiratsudakul

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

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“…When the second wave will start in Egypt is an interesting question. To predict the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt, we assume that β ≡ β(t) is a continuous, time-periodic transmission rate with one year as the period and, following, e.g., [35][36][37], it is assumed to be of the form β(t) = β 0 • sin 2π 366 t + b) + a , where a, b are free adjustment parameters and β 0 is the (constant) baseline value of β(t). This function was used to model the periodic recurrence of infectious diseases such as malaria, Zika virus, and Lassa virus.…”

Section: Prediction Of the Second Wave Of The Covid-19 Epidemic In Egyptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt

Ibrahim

AL-Najafi

2020

Processes

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In this paper, we study and investigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iraq and Egypt by using compartmental, logistic regression, and Gaussian models. We developed a generalized SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19, taking into account mildly and symptomatically infected individuals. The logistic and Gaussian models were utilized to forecast and predict the numbers of confirmed cases in both countries. We estimated the parameters that best fit the incidence data. The results provide discouraging forecasts for Iraq from 22 February to 8 October 2020 and for Egypt from 15 February to 8 October 2020. To provide a forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, we present various simulation scenarios for the expected peak and its timing using Gaussian and logistic regression models, where the predicted cases showed a reasonable agreement with the officially reported cases. We apply our compartmental model with a time-periodic transmission rate to predict the possible start of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt and the possible control measures. Our sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number allow us to conclude that the most effective way to prevent COVID-19 cases is by decreasing the transmission rate. The findings of this study could therefore assist Iraqi and Egyptian officials to intervene with the appropriate safety measures to cope with the increase of COVID-19 cases.

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Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever

Cited by 23 publications

References 46 publications

Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt

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