Impact of vaccine hesitancy on secondary COVID-19 outbreaks in the US: an age-structured SIR model

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease, a global effort led to the development of several vaccines at an unprecedented rate. There have been, however, several logistic issues with its deployment, from their production and transport, to the hesitancy of the population to be vaccinated. For different reasons, an important amount of individuals is reluctant to get the vaccine, something that hinders our ability to control and—eventually—eradicate the disease. Materials and methods Our aim is to explore the impact of vaccine hesitancy when highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern spread through a partially vaccinated population. To do so, we use age-stratified data from surveys on vaccination acceptance, together with age-contact matrices to inform an age-structured SIR model set in the US. Results Our results show that per every one percent decrease in vaccine hesitancy up to 45 deaths per million inhabitants could be averted. A closer inspection of the stratified infection rates also reveals the important role played by the youngest groups. The model captures the general trends of the Delta wave spreading in the US (July-October 2021) with a correlation coefficient of $$\rho =0.79$$ ρ = 0.79 . Conclusions Our results shed light on the role that hesitancy plays on COVID-19 mortality and highlight the importance of increasing vaccine uptake in the population, specially among the eldest age groups.

Understanding the barriers and facilitators of vaccine hesitancy towards the COVID-19 vaccine in healthcare workers and healthcare students worldwide: An Umbrella Review

“…As COVID-19 spread around the globe and the number of active infections and death tolls increased, the need for a vaccine to fight the pandemic became increasingly more critical. However, the rapidity of vaccine development and approval and concerns regarding the vaccine’s safety, effectiveness and side effects have contributed to a lack of vaccine confidence and lower vaccination uptake rates in the general population [ 4 ].…”

Institutional trust is a distinct construct related to vaccine hesitancy and refusal

“…Vaccine hesitancy has a wide range of negative consequences, from the more obvious health effects on unvaccinated individuals who become infected, to the more subtle, but likely larger, consequences for increased infection rates, especially within the social circles of unvaccinated individuals. For example, de Miguel-Aribas and colleagues [ 8 ] modeled the effect of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the US and found that for each one percent decrease in vaccine hesitancy, the primary and secondary effects resulted in an aggregate of 45 deaths per million inhabitants averted.…”

Overcoming vaccine hesitancy by multiplex social network targeting: An analysis of targeting algorithms and implications

“…Mass vaccination represents a crucial strategy in preventing and mitigating the spread of infectious diseases through the establishment of herd immunity [1], protecting even unvaccinated individuals. Despite its demonstrated benefits, vaccine hesitancy remains a persistent issue, compounded by challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic [2, 3,4,5,6,7]. Heightened concerns regarding vaccine safety and efficacy have exacerbated the long-standing challenge of voluntary vaccination [8,9,10].…”