Impact of vaccination by priority group on UK deaths, hospital admissions and intensive care admissions from COVID‐19

Abstract

Summary National (and global) vaccination provides an opportunity to control the COVID‐19 pandemic, which disease suppression by societal lockdown and individual behavioural changes will not. We modelled how vaccination through the UK’s vaccine priority groups impacts deaths, hospital and ICU admissions from COVID‐19. We used the UK COVID‐19 vaccines delivery plan and publicly available data to estimate UK population by age group and vaccination priority group, including frontline health and social care workers and individuals deemed ‘extreme clinical vulnerable’ or ‘high risk’. Using published data on numbers and distributions of COVID‐19‐related hospital and ICU admissions and deaths, we modelled the impact of vaccination by age group. We then modified the model to account for hospital and ICU admission, and death among health and social care workers and the population with extreme clinical vulnerability and high risk. Our model closely matches the government’s estimates for mortality after vaccination of priority groups 1–4 and groups 1–9. The model shows vaccination will have a much slower impact on hospital and ICU admissions than on deaths. The early prioritisation of healthcare staff and clinically vulnerable patients increases the impact of vaccination on admissions and also protects the healthcare service. An inflection point, when 50% of the adult population has been vaccinated – with deaths reduced by 95% and hospital admissions by 80% – may be a useful point for re‐evaluating vaccine prioritisation. Our model suggests substantial reductions in hospital and ICU admissions will not occur until late March and into April 2021.

One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

“…In relation to hospital admission rates (0.35%), ICU (0%) and mortality (0%), all values were far lower, significantly, than the population averages. These data do not differ too much from other experiences already published [ 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 ] and reinforce the initial plan that vaccination is not a priority in these groups [ 30 , 31 , 32 ].…”

Characteristics of endothelial corneal transplant rejection following immunisation with SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA vaccine

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the rapid introduction of immunisation directed against SARS-CoV-2 in an effort to limit the spread of the disease and reduce its associated morbidity and mortality. 5 With the systematic state-sponsored vaccination efforts adopted by countries worldwide, very large numbers of patients with corneal transplants have had, or are set to have, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. We describe two cases of DMEK allograft rejection following COVID-19 immunisation and propose the possibility of a causal association.…”

Construction of a demand and capacity model for intensive care and hospital ward beds, and mortality from COVID-19

“…In the longer term, there are now three vaccines approved for use in the UK, as of the 19th January 2021 [18]. It is expected they will have a substantial impact on admissions and deaths, though not until after the majority of deaths in our scenarios are modelled as occurring [19]. Consequently, we have not factored the application of vaccination into the scenarios as they are operating in the short-term.…”