Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries

Broutin, Hélène; Viboud, Cécile; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Miller, Mark A.; Rohani, Pejman

doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0994

Cited by 92 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…It has been postulated that repeat infections are less severe than primary infections; consequently, repeat infections may have lower reporting probabilities. We therefore considered a third model that allows us to differentiate between primary and repeat infections (SIRS 2 I 2 model) (10,24,25).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand

Blackwood

Cummings

Broutin

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Pertussis is a highly infectious respiratory disease that is currently responsible for nearly 300,000 annual deaths worldwide, primarily in infants in developing countries. Despite sustained high vaccine uptake, a resurgence in pertussis incidence has been reported in a number of countries. This resurgence has led to critical questions regarding the transmission impacts of vaccination and pertussis immunology. We analyzed pertussis incidence in Thailand-both age-stratified and longitudinal aggregate reports-over the past 30 y. To dissect the contributions of waning pertussis immunity and repeat infections to pertussis epidemiology in Thailand following a pronounced increase in vaccine uptake, we used likelihood-based statistical inference methods to evaluate the support for multiple competing transmission models. We found that, in contrast to other settings, there is no evidence for pertussis resurgence in Thailand, with each model examined pointing to a substantial rise in herd immunity over the past 30 y. Using a variety of empirical metrics, we verified our findings by documenting signatures of changing herd immunity over the study period. Importantly, this work leads to the conclusion that repeat infections have played little role in shaping pertussis epidemiology in Thailand. Our results are surprisingly emphatic in support of measurable impact of herd immunity given the uncertainty associated with pertussis epidemiology.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand

Blackwood

Cummings

Broutin

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…For instance, studying cowpox virus in voles, Begon et al [24] found that susceptible recruitment is seasonal, and higher breeding-season birth rates delayed epidemic peaks. However, despite evidence demonstrating the importance of host demography in recurrent epidemics [25][26][27][28], and the ubiquitous appreciation of seasonal reproduction in broader ecology and evolution [29], we submit that a deep understanding of the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on infectious diseases of humans is currently lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

et al. 2014

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More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infectedrecovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.

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“…It remains, however, one of the key microparasitic diseases of childhood and adolescence, with a significant annual burden of infant mortality [15], especially in developing nations [16]. The well-publicized resurgence of pertussis reports in several countries that boast high vaccine uptake has been the subject of much debate [10 -12,17] and has highlighted major gaps in our understanding of its epidemiology [18,19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Choisy

Rohani

2012

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. Here, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the United States to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. We report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. These waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. In contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. We interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. We conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.

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Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries

Cited by 92 publications

References 34 publications

Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand

Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

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