Impact of the announcement and implementation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy on sugar content, price, product size and number of available soft drinks in the UK, 2015-19: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

Background Dietary sugar, especially in liquid form, increases risk of dental caries, adiposity, and type 2 diabetes. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018 and charges manufacturers and importers at £0.24 per litre for drinks with over 8 g sugar per 100 mL (high levy category), £0.18 per litre for drinks with 5 to 8 g sugar per 100 mL (low levy category), and no charge for drinks with less than 5 g sugar per 100 mL (no levy category). Fruit juices and milk-based drinks are exempt. We measured the impact of the SDIL on price, product size, number of soft drinks on the marketplace, and the proportion of drinks over the lower levy threshold of 5 g sugar per 100 mL. Methods and findings We analysed data on a total of 209,637 observations of soft drinks over 85 time points between September 2015 and February 2019, collected from the websites of the leading supermarkets in the UK. The data set was structured as a repeat cross-sectional study. We used controlled interrupted time series to assess the impact of the SDIL on changes in level and slope for the 4 outcome variables. Equivalent models were run for potentially levy-eligible drink categories ('intervention' drinks) and levy-exempt fruit juices and milk-based drinks ('control' drinks). Observed results were compared with counterfactual scenarios based on

What role should the commercial food system play in promoting health through better diet?

“…Manufacturers of higher sugar drinks can choose not to change their drinks and absorb the cost or pass it on to customers by increasing prices; reduce sugar content to avoid the levy; or make other changes, such as diversifying their product ranges and the mix of product volumes and prices. All these responses have been seen since the announcement of the levy, yet the pattern of reactions was not predictable 29. Furthermore, change is continuing, accompanied by extensive marketing,30 indicating that the industry is continually testing many strategies in a quest to find the “sweet spot”—a new equilibrium where they maintain profits, comply with the law, and satisfy customers, albeit with a different commercial offer.…”

Public health rationale for reducing sugar: Strategies and challenges

“…A comparison of the soft drinks available in UK supermarkets suggests that the tax incentivised many manufacturers to reduce the amount of sugar in drinks (Scarborough et al . 2020), even during the period between announcement to implementation. PHE reported the energy content of drinks subject to the levy likely to be consumed on a single occasion fell by 20.5% and the average sugar content decreased by 28.8% between 2015 and 2018 (measured by sales weighted average grams per 100 ml) (PHE 2019).…”

Sixty seconds on . . . the war on sugar

“…Separate research3—also published in Plos Medicine this week—reported that the UK sugar tax implemented in April 2018 has been associated with “a considerable impact” on the soft drinks industry itself, particularly with regard to the amount of sugar in products. But with Prime Minister Boris Johnson noticeably less sweet4 on a sugar tax than his predecessor, the chances of the UK adopting a Chile-style deal seem unlikely.…”