Impact of Technical, Human, and Organizational Risks on Reliability of Fire Safety Systems in High-Rise Residential Buildings—Applications of an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

Tan, Samson; Weinert, Darryl; Joseph, Paul; Moinuddin, Khalid

doi:10.3390/app10248918

Cited by 5 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…These are used to estimate probabilities and consequences for several fire scenarios and provide output in the form of both individual and societal risk. The process is described concisely here while the complete methodology can be found in our earlier papers [27][28][29]. Appendix A provides more details on the T-H-O-Risk methodology that incorporates ETA, FTA, Bayesian networks, system dynamics, and fire and evacuation modelling to determine available safe egress time (ASET) and required safe egress time (RSET).…”

Section: T-h-o-risk Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Four cases have been selected for this study. Three of the cases are taken from our previous studies [27][28][29]. The fourth case is an ABCB FSVM Handbook reference case study.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These probabilities and frequencies are assigned to initiating events and basic events in the model to carry out a In Case #2, as shown in Figure 3 the performance solution has only a single exit stair similar to Case #1, while for Cases #3 and #4 (Figures 4 and 5, respectively); the performance solutions deviate from the required 6 m dead end travel distance. As described in [29], Case#2 is located in UK and Cases #3 and #4 are in Australia-all in a temperate climate.…”

Section: Probability Analysis Of Human and Organizational Errorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the literature review suggests that it is necessary to consider the time varying reliability of safety systems for more realistic view of risk. To address the methodological gap in the lack of methods available to incorporate human and organizational risks specifically for high-rise residential buildings, we developed the technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) model that considers technical, human and organizational risks for a more inclusive estimate of overall fire risk [27][28][29]. While this approach enables an integrated analysis of HOEs and their nonlinear interactions and feedbacks, it generally results in a higher level of uncertainty, hence, detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to assess the model robustness and reliability of model outputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With these assumptions, there are 8 scenarios for each fire location, resulting in a total of 16 scenarios for each design. The fire modelling simulations are performed using the B-Risk [35] fire modelling software as used in previous studies [27][28][29] and requires two different scenarios for each location, one with the fire spreading into common parts and the second with fire restricted to the area of fire origin. The application of FSVM implies that the selection of fire scenarios is based on the performance requirements that have been selected in the hazard identification phase (see Chapter 8 from the FSVM Handbook [21]).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

et al. 2021

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Given that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for high-rise residential buildings with the following goals: (1) Develop an improved PRA methodology to address concerns that deterministic, fire engineering approaches significantly underestimate safety levels that lead to inaccurate fire safety levels. (2) Enhance existing fire safety verification methods by incorporating probabilistic risk approach and HOEs for (i) a more inclusive view of risk, and (ii) to overcome the deterministic nature of current verification methods. (3) Perform comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to address uncertainties in numerical estimates used in fault tree/event trees, Bayesian network and system dynamics and their propagation in a probabilistic model. (4) Quantification of human and organizational risks for high-rise residential buildings which contributes towards a policy agenda in the direction of a sustainable, risk-based regulatory regime. This research contributes to the development of the next-generation building codes and risk assessment methodologies.

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Section: T-h-o-risk Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Four cases have been selected for this study. Three of the cases are taken from our previous studies [27][28][29]. The fourth case is an ABCB FSVM Handbook reference case study.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Analysis Of Human and Organizational Errorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

et al. 2021

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A Critical Review of Fire Safety Monitoring and Control Measures in Buildings

Aldossary,

Rezgui,

Petri

2023

2023 IEEE International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC)

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Electrical Fire Dynamic Risk Assessment for High‐Rise Buildings Based on Variable Fuzzy Set Theory and Bayesian Network

Su¹,

Wei

Yang³

et al. 2023

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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High-rise buildings fires are far more harmful than ordinary fires. In this regard, fire risk assessment is an important way to control fire risk and reduce losses. This study presents a comprehensive model to electrical fire dynamic risk assessment of high-rise buildings based on a Bayesian network (BN) and a variable fuzzy set theory (VFST). Firstly, electric system, safety management, and other factors were comprehensively analyzed based on three categories: hazard sources identification (HSI), fault tree (FT) analysis, and VFST. A high-rise building electrical fire dynamic risk assessment model was established based on a BN. Secondly, the prior probability of BN root nodes was determined by VFST, and the conditional probability table (CPT) was determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decomposition method. On that basis, the quantitative inference and sensitivity analysis can be performed on the electrical fire risks of high-rise buildings in combination with the variable fuzzy Bayesian network (VFBN) inference. Finally, a high-rise building in Wuhan, China, was used as an example for verification. The results show that the proposed method can realize dynamic risk assessment of electrical fires in high-rise buildings. This study provides a new method for fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings to reduce the possibility of fire.

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Impact of Technical, Human, and Organizational Risks on Reliability of Fire Safety Systems in High-Rise Residential Buildings—Applications of an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

Cited by 5 publications

References 32 publications

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

A Critical Review of Fire Safety Monitoring and Control Measures in Buildings

Electrical Fire Dynamic Risk Assessment for High‐Rise Buildings Based on Variable Fuzzy Set Theory and Bayesian Network

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