Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate

Perlwitz, Judith; Pawson, Steven; Fogt, Ryan L.; Nielsen, J. E.; Neff, W. D.

doi:10.1029/2008gl033317

Cited by 207 publications

(261 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…We note that our interpretation that SSTs have played a role in forcing Antarctic climate change is not necessarily at odds with interpretations that focus on the role of stratospheric ozone depletion (e.g. Thompson and Solomon 2002;Perlwitz et al 2008;Son et al 2009). Our assessment underscores that temperatures across East Antarctica have not changed significantly, and have even cooled slightly in austral summer and autumn (though no significantly so) since 1979.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 41%

“…While the projected gradual recovery of the ozone hole is likely to be an important driver of 21 st Century Antarctic climate change in general (e.g. Perlwitz et al 2008;Son et al 2009), regional predictions of West Antarctic climate change will need to take into account low-latitude SST and regional sea ice changes. Our results point to the need for future observational and modeling studies to focus on the regional and seasonal characteristics of Antarctic climate change, the regional response to ozone depletion, the influence of tropical variability and climate change on Antarctic climate, and on the mechanisms that link sea ice and air temperature in Antarctica.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring

2011

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We synthesize variability and trends in multiple analyses of Antarctic near-surface temperature representing several independent source datasets and spatially complete reconstructions, and place these into the broader context of the behavior of other components of the climate system during the past 30-50 years. Along with an annual-mean trend during the past 50 years of about 0.1°C/decade averaged over Antarctica, there is a distinct seasonality to the trends, with insignificant change (and even some cooling) in austral summer and autumn in East Antarctica, contrasting with warming in austral winter and spring. Apart from the Peninsula, the seasonal warming is largest and most significant in West Antarctica in the austral spring since the late 1970s. Concurrent trends in sea ice are independent evidence of the observed warming over West Antarctic, with the decrease in sea ice area in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas congruent with at least 50% of the inland warming of West Antarctica. Trends in near surface winds and geopotential heights over the high-latitude South Pacific are consistent with a role for atmospheric forcing of the sea ice and air temperature anomalies. Most of the circulation trend projects onto the two Pacific South American (PSA) modes of atmospheric circulation variability, while the Southern Annular Mode lacks a positive trend in spring that would otherwise cause a cooling tendency. The largest circulation trend is associated with the PSA-1 mode, a wave-train extending from the tropics to the high Southern latitudes. The PSA-1 mode is significantly correlated with SSTs in the southwestern tropical and subtropical Pacific. The increased SSTs in this region, together with the observed increase in rainfall, suggest that anomalous deep convection has strengthened or increased the occurrence of the Rossby wave-train associated with PSA-1. This hypothesis is supported by results from two ensembles of SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model simulations. Finally, the implications of the seasonality, timing, and spatial patterns of Antarctic temperature trends with respect to interpreting the relative roles of stratospheric ozone depletion, SSTs and increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses are discussed.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 41%

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring

2011

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“…The implications of ozone recovery on an already warming Antarctic continent are worrisome (Perlwitz et al, 2008). The modern ozone hole over Antarctica acts to increase the thermal gradient between the Pole and the mid-latitudes by cooling the polar stratosphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ice‐core proxy for northerly air mass incursions into West Antarctica

Dixon

Mayewski

Goodwin

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:A 200-year proxy for northerly air mass incursions (NAMI) into central and western West Antarctica is developed from the examination of 19 shallow (21-150 m deep) Antarctic ice-core non-sea-salt (nss) Ca 2+ concentration records. The NAMI proxy reveals a significant rise in recent decades. This rise is unprecedented for at least the past 200 years and is coincident with anthropogenically driven changes in other large-scale Southern Hemisphere (SH) environmental phenomena such as greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming, ozone depletion, and the associated intensification of the SH westerlies. The Hysplit trajectory model is used to examine air mass transport pathways into West Antarctica. Empirical orthogonal function analysis, in combination with trajectory results, suggests that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor affecting nssCa 2+ concentrations throughout central and western West Antarctica. Ozone recovery will likely weaken the spring-summer SH westerlies in the future. Consequently, Antarctica could lose one of its best defences against SH GHG warming.

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“…Since the late 1960s, the SAM has displayed statistically significant positive trends in the austral summer and autumn seasons [Marshall, 2007]. The austral summer trends have been linked primarily to stratospheric polar ozone depletion in both observational [Thompson and Solomon, 2002] and modeling studies [e.g., Perlwitz et al, 2008].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Perlwitz et al [2008] and Son et al [2008] demonstrated the advantage of using coupled chemistry climate models (CCMs) to simulate the impacts of stratospheric ozone changes on the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere. CCMs are relatively new tools that include global dynamics and radiation as well as fully interactive stratospheric ozone chemistry, thereby simulating both ozone's influence on the atmospheric circulation and the circulation's (including transport of ozone from midlatitudes) influence on ozone concentrations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intra‐annual relationships between polar ozone and the SAM

Fogt

Perlwitz

Pawson

et al. 2009

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] Observed co-variations between polar total column ozone and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) during 1962 -2004 are presented and evaluated in a chemistry-climate model (CCM). Results show that austral spring total column ozone variability at South Pole is significantly related to the SAM, perhaps up to four months later; this relationship is only seen in simulations that include ozone depletion. The austral spring SAM also is linked to following late spring -early summer total column ozone over the polar cap, since both respond to the wavedriving of the stratosphere. Overall, the CCM captures many of the observed ozone-SAM links, but over-predicts the relationship between spring ozone and austral summer SAM, as a consequence of the delayed breakdown of the polar vortex in the CCM.

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Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate

Cited by 207 publications

References 20 publications

An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring

An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring

An ice‐core proxy for northerly air mass incursions into West Antarctica

Intra‐annual relationships between polar ozone and the SAM

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