Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on photovoltaic energy potential over Nigeria

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of the stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) technique for solar radiation management (SRM) on the potential of photovoltaic energy in four climatic regions throughout Nigeria. The photovoltaic energy potential for the SRM scenario ($$PVE_{srm}$$ P V E srm ) and the reference database ($$PVE_{ref}$$ P V E ref ) were evaluated using solar radiation and temperature data from the ARISE-SAI-1.5 model and from the MERRA-2 climate data repository, respectively. Before projecting the impact of the SAI approach on photovoltaic energy generation, the agreement between $$PVE_{srm}$$ P V E srm and $$PVE_{ref}$$ P V E ref was evaluated using the index of agreement metric. The analysis showed that the index of agreement had values of 0.90 in the Sahel, 0.98 in the Guinea Savannah, 0.97 in the rainforest, and 0.82 in the coastal regions. Other validation metrics used also showed similar trends across the climatic regions in Nigeria. The projected analysis of the impact on photovoltaic energy generation between 2035 and 2069 indicated potential gains of + 5.20 in the Sahel, + 3.60 in the Guinea Savannah, and + 3.40 in the rainforest, but a decline of − 3.20 in the coastal region, all values in watts per square meters. In conclusion, this study reveals that the implementation of the SAI approach for solar radiation management would have a relatively gainful influence on solar power generation in the Sahel, the Guinea Savannah, the rainforest but declined effect in the coastal region. The results of this study provide valuable insights into the influence of solar radiation management and renewable energy generation in different climatic zones across Nigeria.