Impact of Stratified Interventions in University Reopenings

Zhang, Yiwei; Yu, Zhuoting; Fujimoto, Akane; Keskinocak, Pınar; Swann, Julie

doi:10.1101/2021.08.30.21262805

2021

DOI: 10.1101/2021.08.30.21262805

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Impact of Stratified Interventions in University Reopenings

Yiwei Zhang

Zhuoting Yu

Akane Fujimoto

et al.

Abstract: More than 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. are scheduled to start a new semester in August or September, 2021. Many colleges require Covid-19 vaccination, as well as some combination of face coverings or diagnostic testing, while others do not (in some cases due to governance structure). Large state universities may especially have limitations and are not requiring vaccination, testing, or indoor face coverings, nor offering hybrid classes (to promote physical distancing). Group living quarters or c… Show more

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“…Several studies have implemented in-school testing and masks within a single-grouped SIR model to capture the disease transmission of COVID-19 within schools. 4 – 6 Towers and Feng 7 built an age-stratified SIR model to examine the control of influenza among the elderly and concluded that direct contact with infected children caused more than half of the infections among older adults. del Valle et al 8 also used an age-stratified SIR model to analyze and compare the effect of different mixing patterns on smallpox-like disease prevalence.…”

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Modeling the Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Transmission in K-12 Schools

Zhang

Mayorga

Ivy

et al. 2022

MDM Policy & Practice

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Background. The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world causing many waves of COVID-19. Children were at high risk of being exposed to the disease because they were not eligible for vaccination during the first 20 mo of the pandemic in the United States. While children 5 y and older are now eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, vaccination rates remain low despite most schools returning to in-person instruction. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important for controlling the spread of COVID-19 in K-12 schools. US school districts used varied and layered mitigation strategies during the pandemic. The goal of this article is to analyze the impact of different NPIs on COVID-19 transmission within K-12 schools. Methods. We developed a deterministic stratified SEIR model that captures the role of social contacts between cohorts in disease transmission to estimate COVID-19 incidence under different NPIs including masks, random screening, contact reduction, school closures, and test-to-stay. We designed contact matrices to simulate the contact patterns between students and teachers within schools. We estimated the proportion of susceptible infected associated with each intervention over 1 semester under the Omicron variant. Results. We find that masks and reducing contacts can greatly reduce new infections among students. Weekly screening tests also have a positive impact on disease mitigation. While self-quarantining symptomatic infections and school closures are effective measures for decreasing semester-end infections, they increase absenteeism. Conclusion. The model provides a useful tool for evaluating the impact of a variety of NPIs on disease transmission in K-12 schools. While the model is tested under Omicron variant parameters in US K-12 schools, it can be adapted to study other populations under different disease settings. Highlights A stratified SEIR model was developed that captures the role of social contacts in K-12 schools to estimate COVID-19 transmission under different nonpharmaceutical interventions. While masks, random screening, contact reduction, school closures, and test-to-stay are all beneficial interventions, masks and contact reduction resulted in the greatest reduction in new infections among students from the tested scenarios. Layered interventions provide more benefits than implementing interventions independently.

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confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Transmission in K-12 Schools

Zhang

Mayorga

Ivy

et al. 2022

MDM Policy & Practice

Self Cite

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Impact of Stratified Interventions in University Reopenings

Cited by 1 publication

References 9 publications

Modeling the Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Transmission in K-12 Schools

Modeling the Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Transmission in K-12 Schools

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