Impact of social and economic development of the region on the international trade by the example of Ukraine

Abstract

International trade is a significant factor in economic development and meeting global standards is essential for economic growth of any country. However, increase in exports and imports can have both negative and positive effects. The purpose of the article is to establish impact of regional economic and social development level on international trade and distinguish influential factors. Research is conducted using economic indicators in Ukraine, and Sumy region in particular. Factors are divided into four groups and their impact is assessed through correlation and causal analyses of 48 indicators resulting in construction of VAR model. Modeling resulted in obtaining exports equation in Sumy region and confirmed that shocks in standard deviation of economic indicators (world prices of oil “Brent” and corn, official hryvnia exchange rate to the US dollar, interest rate on deposits, etc.) affect exports and imports volumes. Reliability of calculations is confirmed by the comparison of graphs that represent calculated and actual data for both exports and imports. Approach used in the research will allow identifying possible risks and dangers to international trade in connection to economic and social factors in region, thus, allowing flexible management and decision implementation at a regional level. Keywords: international trade, region, economic and social factors, VAR model. JEL Classification: B17, F5

Econometric analysis of the structure and sustainability of Ukraine socio-economic system in the context of the economic systems theory

“…The problems of economic sustainability and sustainable social and economic development have become one of the most researchable among the domestic scientists (see, for example, Ishchenko, 2017;Frolov, 2016;Voitko, 2017). Understanding the decisive role of innovations in ensuring the effectiveness of economic mechanisms for the formation of sustainability, the economists recognize that one of the reasons for the gaps in the spectrum of scientific research is the lack of theoretical and methodological paradigm that would enable them to be included in the structure of economic systems on the general system-building principles (Yurynets, 2016).…”