Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study

Borchering, Rebecca K.; Mullany, Luke C.; Howerton, Emily; Chinazzi, Matteo; Smith, Claire P; Qin, Michelle; Reich, Nicholas G.; Contamin, Lucie; Levander, John; Kerr, Jessica; Espino, Jeremy U.; Hochheiser, Harry; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin; Kinsey, Matt; Tallaksen, Kate; Wilson, Shelby; Shin, Lauren; Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Hulse, Juan Dent; Kaminsky, Joshua; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Hill, Alison L.; Davis, Jessica T.; Mu, Kunpeng; Xiong, Xinyue; Piontti, Ana Pastore y; Vespignani, Alessandro; Srivastava, Ajitesh; Porebski, P.J.; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Adiga, Aniruddha; Lewis, Bryan; Klahn, Brian; Outten, Joseph; Hurt, Benjamin; Chen, Jiangzhuo; Mortveit, Henning; Wilson, Amanda; Marathe, Madhav V.; Hoops, Stefan; Bhattacharya, Parantapa; Machi, Dustin; Chen, Shi; Paul, Rajib; Janies, Daniel; Thill, Jean‐Claude; Galanti, Marta; Yamana, Teresa K.; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey; España, Guido; Cavany, Sean; Moore, Sean M.; Perkins, T. Alex; Healy, Jessica M.; Slayton, Rachel B.; Johansson, Michael A.; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Shea, Katriona; Truelove, Shaun; Runge, Michael C.; Viboud, Cécile; Lessler, Justin

doi:10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…By projecting multiple, clearly defined scenarios that were motivated by public health needs, SMH projections have had significant public health impact (Borchering et al, 2021(Borchering et al, , 2023Truelove et al, 2022;Rosenblum et al, 2022;Biggerstaff et al, 2022). It was difficult at times, however, to balance the needs of decision makers with the capabilities of available models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If multiple types of interventions are being considered, a factorial arrangement of the levels of each might be of interest, so the scenario design could be, say, a 2x2 matrix with both axes being interventions. The interventions could be alternatives being considered by a decision maker (e.g., Borchering et al, 2023) or potential interventions being explored to nudge decision makers to consider new options (Meltzer et al, 2014). Sensitivity analysis (uncertainty x uncertainty in a 2x2 matrix design).…”

Section: Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For infectious disease projections, output metrics might include incident or cumulative cases, hospitalizations, or deaths, which may be further broken down by subgroups (e.g., age, region, race, or ethnicity). Metrics that are not strictly epidemiological may also be of interest (e.g., business closure duration for NPI-based scenarios, Shea et al, 2023). Generally, multiple outputs are assessed separately, but multi-criteria decision analysis (Keeney and Raiffa, 1993) would permit composite outputs to be addressed.…”

Section: Elements Of a Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of scenario modeling has become pervasive in infectious disease epidemiology over the last two decades. Notable examples include modeling of different types and layers of interventions to control emerging outbreaks such as foot-and-mouth disease in the United Kingdom (Tildesley et al, 2006), avian influenza (Longini et al, 2005), the Ebola outbreak in West Africa (Meltzer et al, 2014), and the COVID-19 pandemic (Borchering et al, 2023;Borchering et al, 2021;Hellewell et al, 2020;Truelove et al, 2022;Walker et al, 2020). Additional notable use cases include the roll-out of new interventions for endemic pathogens where, for instance, scenario projections can help anticipate the benefits and dynamic changes associated with new vaccines or improved drugs (Flasche et al, 2016;Pitzer et al, 2009;Eaton et al, 2012;Houben et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional notable use cases include the roll-out of new interventions for endemic pathogens where, for instance, scenario projections can help anticipate the benefits and dynamic changes associated with new vaccines or improved drugs (Flasche et al, 2016;Pitzer et al, 2009;Eaton et al, 2012;Houben et al, 2016). In some cases, the scenario projections are produced from a single model (e.g., Meltzer et al, 2014), while in others, the scenario projections come from multiple models (Flasche et al, 2016;Houben et al, 2016), drawing on a growing literature documenting the value of multi-model efforts (Johansson et al, 2019;Shea et al, 2020Shea et al, , 2023Cramer et al, 2022;Prasad et al, 2023). Scenario design plays an important role in infectious disease projections over long time scales, not only to contrast different intervention schemes, but also to control for uncertainty in key parameters that may be magnified over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

Runge,

Shea,

Howerton

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value of information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, and forecasting) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Elements Of a Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

Runge,

Shea,

Howerton

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Covid-19 infection in children and adolescents and its association with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1d) presentation and management

et al. 2022

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Children seem to be affected by the new SARS-CoV-2 virus less severely than adults, with better prognosis and low mortality. Serious complications of COVID-19 infection in children include multisystem inflammatory response syndrome in COVID-19 infection (MIS-C), myo-or pericarditis and, less frequently, long COVID syndrome. On the other hand, adults with type 1 (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D) are among the most vulnerable groups affected by COVID-19, with increased morbidity and mortality. Moreover, an association of SARS-CoV-2 with diabetes has been observed, possibly affecting the frequency and severity of the first clinical presentation of T1D or T2D, as well as the development of acute diabetes after COVID-19 infection. The present review summarizes the current data on the incidence of T1D among children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its severity. Moreover, it reports on the types of newly diagnosed diabetes after COVID infection and the possible pathogenetic mechanisms. Additionally, this study presents current data on the effect of SARS-CoV-2 on diabetes control in patients with known T1D and on the severity of clinical presentation of COVID infection in these patients. Finally, this review discusses the necessity of immunization against COVID 19 in children and adolescents with T1D.

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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in children and adolescents with and without type 1 diabetes mellitus

et al. 2023

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Adults with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) have increased risk of severe clinical presentation during COVID-19 infection, while children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have the same mild clinical course as their healthy peers, especially those with optimal glycemic control. The present review focuses on the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination among children and adolescents with T1D, and also in their non-diabetic peers. The efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines are also discussed, as well as their various side-effects, ranging from common mild to very rare and serious ones. Furthermore, the results of COVID-19 vaccination of adolescents with and without T1D are reported, as well as the efficacy and concerns about childhood vaccination. It is concluded that patients with DM of all age groups should maintain optimal diabetic control in order to avoid glycemic deterioration during COVID-19 infection. Furthermore, despite the very rare and serious complications of COVID-19 vaccines, vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended for children and adolescents with T1D to prevent glycemic deterioration and rare but serious complications of COVID-19 infection.

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Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study

Cited by 15 publications

References 40 publications

Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

Covid-19 infection in children and adolescents and its association with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1d) presentation and management

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in children and adolescents with and without type 1 diabetes mellitus

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