Impact of resolution on the atmosphere–ocean coupling along the Gulf Stream in global high resolution models

Tsartsali, Eirini; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Bellucci, Alessio; Vries, Hylke de; Drijfhout, Sybren; Vries, Iris Elisabeth de; Putrahasan, D.; Roberts, Malcolm; Sánchez-Gómez, Emilia; Roberts, Christopher D.

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-06098-9

Cited by 8 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…Precipitation was overestimated in the models for the winter and underestimated for the summer, while temperature and potential evapotranspiration were found to be overestimated in the summer and underestimated in the winter. The results about the bias match similar results in other studies (e.g., Moreno‐Chamarro et al., 2021, 2022; Squintu et al., 2021; Tsartsali et al., 2022; Zhao, 2020, 2022). We did not investigate the sensitivity of the biases on hydrologic simulations and future work should strive to incorporate this type of analyses.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP for Hydrologic Modeling of Annual Maximum Discharge in Iowa

Michalek,

Villarini,

Kim

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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The High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) represent a broad effort to improve the resolution, and performance of climate models. The HighResMIP suite provides high spatial resolution (i.e., 25‐ and 50‐km) forcings that have been shown to improve the representation of climate processes. However, little is known about their suitability for hydrologic applications. We use outputs from the HighResMIP suite to simulate annual maximum discharge with the Hillslope‐Link Model (HLM) at ∼1000 river communities across Iowa. First, we assess whether the runoff from the climate models can be directly routed through the river network model in HLM to estimate annual maximum discharge. Runoff‐based simulations can capture the empirical distribution of flood peaks in five of the ten models/members assessed. Next, we force the HLM with precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration from HighResMIP models to simulate flood peaks, finding all models/members produce empirical distributions similar to our reference. However, significant biases exist in the model/member forcings as correct flood response is being generated for the wrong reason. To improve their suitability for community‐level assessment, we use nine statistical approaches to bias‐correct and downscale HighResMIP precipitation to a 4‐km resolution. The bias‐correction and downscaling of climate model precipitation performs well for all models/members. Furthermore, we do not find significant changes in the magnitude flood peak projections for Iowa based on the HLM forced with HighResMIP outputs, or based on routed runoff, while there are indications that the variability in flood peaks is projected to increase across the state.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP for Hydrologic Modeling of Annual Maximum Discharge in Iowa

Michalek,

Villarini,

Kim

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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“…These results suggest that at least eddy-permitting ocean resolution and comparable atmosphere resolution are required for a reliable storm track simulation, subjected to correct model physics and other feedbacks. This finding is consistent with a previous study (Tsartsali et al, 2022) that reported similar inferences for the Gulf Stream region.…”

Section: Model's Skill For Wind and Its Extremes (Storm Track Density)supporting

confidence: 94%

“…Most of the global climate models participating in CMIP5 activities have a nominal resolution of about 150 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean (Eyring et al., 2016; T. Rackow et al., 2018; Taylor et al., 2012) providing a reasonable trade‐off between computing time and model complexity. Various studies noted the improvement in the model performance (either global or regional) by increasing the atmospheric or oceanic resolution over most parts of the world (Bador et al., 2020; de la Vara et al., 2020; Güttler et al., 2015; Hack et al., 2006; Mishra et al., 2021; Moreno‐Chamarro et al., 2022; Strandberg & Lind, 2021; Tsartsali et al., 2022). Strandberg and Lind (2021) show notable improvement in high or moderate precipitation intensities over Europe after increasing atmospheric resolution (downscaling CMIP5 with a regional climate model).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Increasing Climate Model Horizontal Resolution Be Beneficial for the Mediterranean Region?: Multimodel Evaluation Framework for High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project

2023

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The Mediterranean is a complex geographical region influenced by various global and regional processes. Its complex interaction results in highly variable circulation patterns leading to strong spatiotemporal variability (sub-basin to mesoscale) (Seager et al., 2020). Regarding future projected conditions, the Mediterranean is reported as one of the climate change hot spots (Barcikowska et al., 2020). The frequency of extreme events, including high precipitation, heat waves, and cold spells, is likely to be altered due to global warming, which might severely threaten the coastal environment and economies. Numerous studies indicated the changing characteristics of extreme events (intensity/frequency) of various climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind in the context of climate change (Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020;Samuels et al., 2018). The variability of these properties may also be modulated, especially on a regional scale (Kodra et al., 2011).

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“…The impact of the ocean model resolution may also affect the pathways and adjustment processes in the transient response of the AMOC to the water hosing (e.g., Mecking et al 2016;Swingedouw et al 2022). Higher resolutions in both the atmosphere and the ocean influence the air-sea interactions, ultimately affecting precipitation impacts, especially over coastal areas or complex topography (e.g., Tsartsali et al 2022;Bellucci et al 2021;Haarsma et al 2019). Reproducing these experiments with higher model resolution and in different models could thus help us gain further insights and advance the results of this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

et al. 2023

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Given paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may affect the global climate system, we conduct model experiments with EC-Earth3, a state-of-the-art GCM, to specifically investigate, for the first time, mechanisms of precipitation change over the Euro-Atlantic sector induced by a weakened AMOC. We artificially weaken the strength of the AMOC in the model through the release of a freshwater anomaly into the Northern Hemisphere high latitude ocean, thereby obtaining a ~ 57% weaker AMOC with respect to its preindustrial strength for 60 model years. Similar to prior studies, we find that Northern Hemisphere precipitation decreases in response to a weakened AMOC. However, we also find that the frequency of wet days increases in some regions. By computing the atmospheric moisture budget, we find that intensified but drier storms cause less precipitation over land. Nevertheless, changes in the jet stream tend to enhance precipitation over northwestern Europe. We further investigate the association of precipitation anomalies with large-scale atmospheric circulations by computing weather regimes through clustering of geopotential height daily anomalies. We find an increase in the frequency of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+), which is associated with an increase in the occurrence of wet days over northern Europe and drier conditions over southern Europe. Since a ~ 57% reduction in the AMOC strength is within the inter-model range of projected AMOC declines by the end of the twenty-first century, our results have implications for understanding the role of AMOC in future hydrological changes.

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Impact of resolution on the atmosphere–ocean coupling along the Gulf Stream in global high resolution models

Cited by 8 publications

References 92 publications

Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP for Hydrologic Modeling of Annual Maximum Discharge in Iowa

Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP for Hydrologic Modeling of Annual Maximum Discharge in Iowa

Does Increasing Climate Model Horizontal Resolution Be Beneficial for the Mediterranean Region?: Multimodel Evaluation Framework for High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project

Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

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