Impact of reproduction number on the multiwave spreading dynamics of COVID-19 with temporary immunity: A mathematical model

Shayak, B.; Sharma, Mohit; Mishra, Anand

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.018

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…This model considers a population (N) that is divided into nine compartments, susceptible (S), COVID-19 exposed (E c ), COVID-19 infectious (I c ), influenza infectious (I f ), COVID-19 and influenza co-infectious (I fc ), COVID-19 and influenza co-exposed (E fc ), COVID-19 recovered (Rc), influenza recovered (R f ) and COVID-19–influenza co-infectious recovered (R fc ). We assumed a closed environment with birth rate and natural death rates both equal to 0, while the number of susceptible population increases by those individuals that lose their temporary immunity 29 from the recovered compartment of COVID-19 (R c ), influenza (R f ) and COVID-19–influenza co-infected compartment (R fc ) with rates of d 1 , d 2 and d 3 , respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Joint Compartmental Model for The Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza

Zafarnejad

Griffin

Ventresca

2022

Preprint

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Co-infection of COVID-19 and other respiratory pathogens, including influenza virus family, has been of importance since the beginning of the recent pandemic. As the upcoming flu season arrives in countries with ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, the need for preventive policy actions becomes more critical. We present a joint compartmental SEIRS-SIRS model for the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza and discuss the characteristics of the model, such as the basic reproduction number (R0) and cases of death and recovery. We implemented the model using 2020 to early 2021 data derived from global healthcare organizations and studied the impact of interventions and policy actions such as vaccination, quarantine, and public education. The VENSIM simulation of the model resulted in R0 = 7.5, which is higher than what was reported for the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination against COVID-19 dramatically slowed its spread and the co-infection of both diseases significantly, while other types of interventions had a limited impact on the co-dynamics of the diseases given our assumptions. These findings can help provide guidance as to which preventive policies would be most effective at the time of concurrent epidemics, and contributes to the literature as a novel model to simulate and analyze the co-circulation of respiratory pathogens in a compartmental setting that can further be used to study the co-infection of COVID-19 or similar respiratory infections with other diseases.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Joint Compartmental Model for The Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza

Zafarnejad

Griffin

Ventresca

2022

Preprint

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“…The individuals can be in two disjoint groups related to disease progression: infected with variant one and infected with variant two. The model also assumes that individuals infected with one SARS-CoV-2 variant have full immunity against the other variant due to the adaptive immune response [59][60][61][62]. The model has a constant recruiting rate (births) Λ to the susceptible (S(t)) class.…”

Section: Mathematical Model Of Sars-cov-2 Spreadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Introduction of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant with Different Infectiousness

González-Parra

Arenas

2021

Mathematics

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Several variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been detected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these new variants have been of health public concern due to their higher infectiousness. We propose a theoretical mathematical model based on differential equations to study the effect of introducing a new, more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant in a population. The mathematical model is formulated in such a way that it takes into account the higher transmission rate of the new SARS-CoV-2 strain and the subpopulation of asymptomatic carriers. We find the basic reproduction number R0 using the method of the next generation matrix. This threshold parameter is crucial since it indicates what parameters play an important role in the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the local stability of the infection-free and endemic equilibrium states, which are potential outcomes of a pandemic. Moreover, by using a suitable Lyapunov functional and the LaSalle invariant principle, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our study shows that the new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant will prevail and the prevalence of the preexistent variant would decrease and eventually disappear. We perform numerical simulations to support the analytic results and to show some effects of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant in a population.

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“…According to the high and low basic reproduction number, a multi-wave solution to the model of coronavirus was demonstrated by Shayak et al, 2021 [19] . A few numbers of researchers are considered the effect of vaccines in their proposed model to represent more specific transmission dynamics of the disease [3] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fuady et al, 2021 [33] demonstrated several vaccines delivering strategies. To mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19, vaccination programs in the community should follow a proper distribution strategy [19] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%