Impact of regional climate change on human health

Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

doi:10.1038/nature04188

Cited by 2,388 publications

(1,425 citation statements)

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“…First, the findings of largescale study provide quantitative evidence on epidemics in historical China, which can be a basis of research in other regions or countries. Furthermore, the study can help re-interpret the relationships of climateehuman and economyeepidemics in historical China, particularly with statistical evidence to solve the uncertainties in the research on epidemics due to the absence of long-term and high-quality datasets (Patz et al, 2005).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the current background of climate change literature, improving economic well-being remains a primary objective in order to prevent infectious diseases (Khasnis and Nettleman, 2005). However, studies that compare the influences of climate change and economic well-being in triggering infectious diseases are scarce (McMichael et al, 2006), mainly because of the absence of long-term and high-quality datasets (Patz et al, 2005). Here we analyze historical records of disease in order to explore long-term mechanism by which shocks of climate and economic factors affect epidemics (Lafferty, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Pei

Zhang

et al. 2015

Social Science & Medicine

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a b s t r a c tWe investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368e1901). Using long-term and highquality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change / economy / epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Pei

Zhang

et al. 2015

Social Science & Medicine

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“…The elderly, infants, children, and urban poor are expected to be most vulnerable to the rapidly changing climate (Confalonieri et al, 2007;Ebi et al, 2006;Patz et al, 2000aPatz et al, , 2005. Notable adverse consequences of climate change on human health include increased death and injury associated with more severe and frequent heat waves, extreme weather events, and enhanced vector-borne and allergic disease transmission.…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Change On Contaminant-linked Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Elucidating the relationship between humans and the climate is complicated by the interactive nature of the many environmental, biological, and socioeconomic conditions that can influence human health (Epstein, 2005;Haines et al, 2006;McMichael et al, 2006;Patz et al, 2005). The nature of negative health outcomes linked to climate change and the ability of populations to acclimate will depend on many conditions.…”

Section: Vulnerable Subpopulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Qian et al (2008) found a synergistic effect of PM 10 and high temperatures on daily cardio-respiratory (Bell et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dominici et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;IPCC, 2007a;Katsouyanni et al, 1993;Knowlton et al, 2004;Koken et al, 2003;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Ordonez et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003;Ren and Tong, 2006) ▪ The elderly and individuals with pre-existing cardio-respiratory disease may be more vulnerable to these effects Altered exposure and risk ▪ Some populations may experience increases or decreases in POP exposures and health risks depending on the region and diet of exposed individuals (Bard, 1999;Gordon, 1997;McKone et al, 1996;Watkinson et al, 2003) ▪ Pesticides may impair mechanisms of temperature regulation especially during times of thermal stress Increased susceptibility to pathogens ▪ Toxicants can suppress immune function, and climate-induced shifts in disease vector range will result in novel pathogen exposure (Abadin et al, 2007;Haines et al, 2006;Lipp et al, 2002;Nagayama et al, 2007;Patz et al, 2005;Rogers and Randolph, 2000;Smialowicz et al, 2001) ▪ Immune system impairment linked to toxicants may increase human vulnerability to climate shifts in pathogens ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible exposures may sensitize individuals to allergic disease ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible mortality in Wuhan, China. The PM 10 effects were strongest on extremely high temperature days (daily average temperature 33.1°C) and weakest during normal temperature days (daily average temperature 18°C).…”

Section: Air Pollutants and Cardio-respiratory Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

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The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Noyes

McElwee

Miller

et al. 2009

Environment International

882

548

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Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it w...

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Prognostic Factors in Heat Wave–Related Deaths<subtitle>A Meta-analysis</subtitle>

Dehbi²,

et al. 2007

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Background: Although identifying individuals who are at increased risk of dying during heat waves and instituting protective measures represent an established strategy, the evidence supporting the components of this strategy and their strengths has yet to be evaluated. We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies on risk and protective factors in heat wave-related deaths. Methods: Using the OVID interface, we searched Medline (1966-2006) and CINHAL (1982-2006) databases. The Web sites of the World Health Organization, Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were also visited. The search terms included heat wave, heat stroke, heatstroke, sunstroke, and heat stress disorders. Eligible studies were case-control or cohort studies. Odds ratios (ORs) and information on study quality were abstracted by 2 investigators independently. Six case-control studies involving 1065 heat wave-related deaths were identified. Results: Being confined to bed (OR, 6.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5-9.2), not leaving home daily (OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.6-6.9), and being unable to care for oneself (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.8-4.8) were associated with the highest risk of death during heat waves. Preexisting psychiatric illness (OR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.3-9.8) tripled the risk of death, followed by cardiovascular (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.3-4.8) and pulmonary (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1) illness. Working home airconditioning (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.1-0.6), visiting cool environments (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.2-0.5), and increasing social contact (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8) were strongly associated with better outcomes. Taking extra showers or baths (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.1-1.1) and using fans (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.4-1.1) were associated with a trend toward lower risk of death. Conclusion: The present study identified several prognostic factors that could help to detect those individuals who are at highest risk during heat waves and to provide a basis for potential risk-reducing interventions in the setting of heat waves.

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Impact of regional climate change on human health

Cited by 2,388 publications

References 59 publications

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Prognostic Factors in Heat Wave–Related Deaths<subtitle>A Meta-analysis</subtitle>

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