Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts (Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional Climate Model (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, pH, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.