Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Abstract

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

Multi-purpose reservoir operation concomitant with estimating hydropower potential using multifarious hydrological models

“…A dry season guide curve and a rainy season guide curve are hydrological tools for managing water resources in places with distinct wet and dry seasons [ 34 ]. Based on historical data, these curves are used to calculate the quantity of water that may be released from a dam or reservoir during different seasons.…”

“…The planning and management of the water resources system include reservoir operation [ 34 ]. Three distinct sets of functions, referred to as modules, are provided by HEC-ResSim and give users access to various categories of data within a watershed.…”

Satellite-Based Methodology for Purposes of Rescue Archaeology of Cultural Heritage Threatened by Dam Construction

“…This condition further justifies the value for an archaeological and ethnographic research to be undertaken, even if the dam is already in operation. If research studies [85,86] are confirmed, it is reasonable to imagine that there are still about 4 to 5 years before the complete loss of the cultural landscape of this large portion of the Nile valley due to the progressive dam filling process.…”

Investigation of climate change impact on the optimal operation of koka reservoir, upper awash watershed, Ethiopia

“…However, due to the influence of climate change, ensuring the consistency and reliability of power supply has become one of the most pressing issues [ 21 ]. On the other hand, the majority of reservoirs in Ethiopia are designed, maintained, and operated under the assumption of stationary historical climate data [ 10 ].…”

“…Few studies are done that showed the likely impact of climate change on the hydropower potential and hydroelectricity generation of Ethiopia. For instance, Bombelli et al [ 21 ] investigated the impact of climate change on the hydroelectric power generating capacity of GERD and GIBE reservoirs. To simulate the ideal power production and the future hydrological balance, they used Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power models.…”