Impact of Proposed Land Use and Transportation Investments on Future Travel Patterns in California

Abstract

This study investigated the potential changes in transportation patterns in California associated with the development of smart growth–inspired transportation and land use policies through the application of the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM). California's SB (Senate Bill) 375 requires the state's metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to develop sustainable community strategies (SCS) in their regional transportation plans (RTPs) in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, among other environmental goals, through the integration of land use and transportation planning. Although some SCS were still under development at the time this study was conducted, some concerns had already been raised about whether these proposed policies would be able to achieve the proposed environmental targets. In this study, future transportation demand in California in 2035 was simulated through the application of the CSTDM and the simulation of policy scenarios inspired by the SCS developed before February 2014 by local MPOs. The study provides insights into how proposed land use changes and planned transportation investments would affect both regional and interregional mobility patterns in California. The expected impacts of the proposed policies were compared with a more conservative control scenario based on the previous RTPs developed by MPOs before the introduction of the SCS. Reductions of vehicle miles traveled per capita were predicted for all regions that had developed SCS, with greater reductions in larger metropolitan areas.