Impact of projected climate on wheat yield in India and its adaptation strategies

Abstract

Wheat is highly sensitive to climate change especially temperature changes experienced in the later phase of crop season. Hence, it is of immense importance to know how and to what extent climate change will affect wheat yields and to assess the adaptive strategies for mitigating possible negative consequences on wheat production. Wheat yield responses to three future climatic periods (2025, 2050 and 2075) were studied by driving DSSAT-Wheat (v4.5) model with daily weather from three CMIP-5 climate models’ (GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M) as the basic input at four sites (Ludhiana, Raipur, Akola and New Delhi) representing three major wheat growing zones of the country. Projected changes in growing season (November-March) day and night temperatures at four sites differed substantially both in direction and magnitude. Day temperatures are projected to rise conspicuously at Ludhiana, representing northwest parts of the country, and moderately over central parts of India (Akola and Raipur). Positive rainfall anomalies at Ludhiana (+76%) and negative anomalies at Raipur (-15%) are projected in future climates. With these anticipated changes, wheat is likely to experience warmer days (+1.1 °C) at Ludhiana and nights at Raipur (+2.8 °C) and more seasonal moisture availability at Ludhiana in future climates. Negative impacts of climatic change in these sites are found to be minimized by adapting one or a combination of management practices, which are site specific.

In-Season Wheat Yield Forecasting at High Resolution Using Regional Climate Model and Crop Model

“…Forecasting food grain yield in developing countries is an important aspect of agricultural management, food security warning and food trade policy [4][5][6]. Crop yield forecasting spans across spatial and temporal scales with several approaches viz.…”

Studies on Sowing Windows for Sustainable Production of Rabi Sorghum (Sorghum bicolour L.) Under Changing Climatic Condition in Scarcity Zone of Maharashtra

“…Decline in sorghum productivity in future climate change scenarios at different locations of India was primarily attributed to reduction in crop growth period with increase in temperature (Boomiraj et al, 2012). Pramod et al (2017) used various adaptation strategies viz., change in sowing dates to minimize the yield reduction in wheat in India. In India, sorghum is extensively produced and both hybrid and improved varieties are taken on large scale.…”