Impact of modifiable risk factors on prediction of 10-year cardiovascular disease utilizing framingham risk score in Southwest Iran

Abstract

Background This cohort study was conducted to examine the association between modifiable risk factors, including hypertension, smoking, physical activity, diabetes, cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein with Framingham risk score in the prediction of 10-year-risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) between men and women in an Arab community of Southwest Iran, Hoveyzeh. Materials and methods A total of 8,526 people aged 35–70 participated in this cohort study. Framingham was used to estimate the 10-year risk of CVD. Also, the linear regression models were used to assess the relationship between modifiable risk factors and the 10-year risk of CVD. Finally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to measure the ability of modifiable risk factors to predict the 10-year risk of CVD. Results Our results of linear regression models showed that hypertension, smoking, PA, diabetes, cholesterol, and HDL were independently associated with the CVD risk in men and women. Also, AUC analysis showed that hypertension and diabetes have the largest AUC in men 0.841; 0.778 and in women 0.776; 0.715, respectively. However, physical activity had the highest AUC just in women 0.717. Conclusion Hypertension and diabetes in both gender and physical activity in women are the most important determinant for the prediction of CVD risk in Hoveyzeh. Our cohort study may be useful for adopting strategies to reduce CVD progression through lifestyle changes.