Impact of model structure on the accuracy of hydrological modeling of a Canadian Prairie watershed

Muhammad, Ameer; Evenson, Grey R.; Stadnyk, Tricia A.; Boluwade, Alaba; Jha, Sanjeev; Coulibaly, Paulin

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.11.005

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Streamflow is underestimated by the model, as indicated by the predominance of positive residuals during winter months, while it is less frequently overestimated or quite well-estimated during the summer. The underestimation of major peak flow events was reported in the literature for arid and semi-arid watersheds and ephemeral streams [61,62] and could be explained by bias in the meteorological data not spatially well-distributed, or more general errors in data inputs [63]. Nevertheless, uncertainties associated with river streamflow can be seen in Figure 2 when looking at the 95PPU range that generally well-bracketed the simulation line and confirming the model performance, as well as the quite large uncertainty interval in terms of some peak flow.…”

Section: Streamflow Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Moreover, the maps reveal that some sub-basins in the southern watershed (e.g., 63 and 84) have hot-spot areas contributing up to 1.29 t ha −1 year −1 , 12 kg ha −1 year −1 , and 2.4 kg ha −1 year −1 for sediment load, TN, and TP, respectively. These results may be explained by the fact that in these sub-basins, intensive agricultural practices and fertilization are more frequent, and consequently, these generate relatively higher nutrient loads.…”

Section: Water Quality and High Loading Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Streamflow and Nutrient Loadings in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Watershed with Ephemeral Streams Using the SWAT Model

Pulighe¹,

Bonati²,

Colangeli

et al. 2019

Agronomy

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Predicting the availability and quality of freshwater resources is a pressing concern in the Mediterranean area, where a number of agricultural systems depend solely on precipitation. This study aims at predicting streamflow and nonpoint pollutant loads in a temporary river system in the Mediterranean basin (Sulcis area, Sardinia, Italy). Monthly discharge, suspended sediment, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, mineral phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen in-stream monitoring data from gauge stations were used to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for the period 1979–2009. A Sequential Uncertainty Fitting procedure was used to auto-calibrate parameter uncertainties and model evaluation. Monthly simulation during the validation period showed a positive model performance for streamflow with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias values of 0.7% and 18.7%, respectively. The simulation results at a watershed level indicate that the sediment load was 1.13 t ha−1 year−1, while for total nitrogen and total phosphorus, the simulated values were 4.8 and 1.18 kg ha−1 year−1, respectively. These results were consistent with the values of soil and nutrient losses observed in the Mediterranean area, although hot-spot areas with high nutrient loadings were identified. The calibrated model could be used to assess long-term impacts on water quality associated with the simulated land use scenarios.

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Section: Streamflow Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Water Quality and High Loading Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Streamflow and Nutrient Loadings in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Watershed with Ephemeral Streams Using the SWAT Model

Pulighe¹,

Bonati²,

Colangeli

et al. 2019

Agronomy

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“…The modified model has been previously demonstrated to better replicate streamflow and other dominant physical processes such as the fill-spill of the prairie pothole wetlands, which are the defining characteristics of the PPR [28,32,34]. As noted in earlier studies, a limitation of the modified model was the computational cost in representing pothole wetlands at larger spatio-temporal scales [32,34]. Hence, we further modified the model to include a threshold wetland storage capacity to decrease computational cost without significantly reducing the enhanced spatial representation of pothole wetlands and model simulation accuracy.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A modified version of the SWAT model was constructed to better represent pothole wetlands and their impact on watershed hydrology [31][32][33]. Though the modification addressed some of the Prairie region modeling limitations, it imposed significant and sometimes prohibitive computational challenges [34]. Such limitations are particularly important in the context of climate change analyses, for which models are commonly executed over longer time periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Muhammad

Evenson

Unduche

et al. 2020

Water

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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

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“…Evenson et al (2016) also modified the model to estimate the probability of interwetland "fill-spill" hydrologic connections whereby upgradient wetlands fill to capacity and then spill to downgradient wetlands (Figure 4). A previous iteration of the model was used to examine hydrologic connectivity between NFWs and downstream waters in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal plains (Evenson et al 2015;Lee et al 2018), and an updated version of the model has been used in two watersheds in the Prairie Pothole Region Muhammad et al 2019). Evenson et al (2018) applied the modified SWAT model to a study with an objective of quantifying the cumulative impacts of NFWs on downstream waters in a large North Dakota watershed.…”

Section: Lumped Wetland Model (Us Atlantic Coastal Plain)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Connectivity of Non‐floodplain Wetlands: Insights, Approaches, and Recommendations

Jones

Ameli

Neff

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Representing hydrologic connectivity of non‐floodplain wetlands (NFWs) to downstream waters in process‐based models is an emerging challenge relevant to many research, regulatory, and management activities. We review four case studies that utilize process‐based models developed to simulate NFW hydrology. Models range from a simple, lumped parameter model to a highly complex, fully distributed model. Across case studies, we highlight appropriate application of each model, emphasizing spatial scale, computational demands, process representation, and model limitations. We end with a synthesis of recommended “best modeling practices” to guide model application. These recommendations include: (1) clearly articulate modeling objectives, and revisit and adjust those objectives regularly; (2) develop a conceptualization of NFW connectivity using qualitative observations, empirical data, and process‐based modeling; (3) select a model to represent NFW connectivity by balancing both modeling objectives and available resources; (4) use innovative techniques and data sources to validate and calibrate NFW connectivity simulations; and (5) clearly articulate the limits of the resulting NFW connectivity representation. Our review and synthesis of these case studies highlights modeling approaches that incorporate NFW connectivity, demonstrates tradeoffs in model selection, and ultimately provides actionable guidance for future model application and development.

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Impact of model structure on the accuracy of hydrological modeling of a Canadian Prairie watershed

Cited by 31 publications

References 57 publications

Predicting Streamflow and Nutrient Loadings in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Watershed with Ephemeral Streams Using the SWAT Model

Predicting Streamflow and Nutrient Loadings in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Watershed with Ephemeral Streams Using the SWAT Model

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Modeling Connectivity of Non‐floodplain Wetlands: Insights, Approaches, and Recommendations

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