Impact of local port disruption on global container trade: An example of stressing testing Chinese ports using a D-vine copula-based quantile regression

Xiao, Zengqi; Bai, Xiwen

doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106295

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…To the best of the authors knowledge, this finding has not been reported in existing literature on maritime network vulnerability analysis. The damage of disruptions of those identified critical ports and countries to different countries is found to be highly heterogeneous (Figures 7 and 11). This finding confirms prior research that highlighted the regional differences in the vulnerability to disruptive events of critical components in global maritime transportation networks (Rousset & Ducruet, 2020; Wu, Wang, et al., 2019; Xiao & Bai, 2022), by providing two new insights into the vulnerability of GLSN at individual country level. First, the disruption of critical ports of Singapore, Shanghai and Busan can exert a global impact in that most other countries in the world will suffer a non‐negligible efficiency decrease, whereas the impact of other critical ports like Jebel Ali, Valencia, Rotterdam and New York–New Jersey is relatively localized in that their disruptions mainly affect countries geographically adjacent to them.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Assessing the efficiency and vulnerability of global liner shipping network

Zhu

Deng

et al. 2023

Global Networks

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Global liner shipping network (GLSN) constitutes an essential part of global maritime supply chains, but it could be vulnerable to disruptions. This paper develops an integrated framework for assessing the efficiency and vulnerability of GLSN. Specifically, a novel efficiency metric is proposed to quantify the performance of GLSN, and the framework enables modeling different levels of port disruption scenarios. Results show that the overall GLSN is quite robust under the partial disruption scenario of any single port (or of any single country's ports), but the damage to different countries is highly heterogeneous. Under dismantling scenarios where the identified most critical ports (countries) are successively disrupted, the GLSN vulnerability increases non‐linearly with an increasing level of disruption. Our findings demonstrate that it is necessary to monitor and protect the identified critical ports (countries); especially, avoiding their simultaneously complete disruptions is of vital importance to the robust functionality of GLSN.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Assessing the efficiency and vulnerability of global liner shipping network

Zhu

Deng

et al. 2023

Global Networks

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“…Intermediate centrality refers to the ratio of the shortest paths passing through a certain point in the network and connecting these two points to the total number of shortest paths between these two points, reflecting the communication efficiency between port nodes and other port nodes, i.e., the role of the "middleman". The formula for calculating the centrality of the intermediary is shown in Equation (3), where δ(s, t|i ) is the number of shortest paths of ports s and t through port i and δ(s, t) is the sum of the shortest paths of ports s and t.…”

Section: Intermediate Centrality Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the data of the China Marine Disaster Bulletin 2022, the direct economic losses caused by typhoons and storm surges along the coast of China in the past decade reached RMB 6.8 billion. In addition to the economic losses, China's containerised port throughput accounts for about 30% of the global port throughput [3] and plays a pivotal role in the global containerised trade system. Therefore, when a typhoon affects the ports, it could directly lead to port closure, affect port operations and cargo transportation efficiency, and ultimately deteriorate the supply chain in which the port is located, reducing the efficiency of international trade.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Network Efficiency of Chinese Ports in Global Shipping under the Impacts of Typhoons

Wang,

Feng,

Poo

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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With the increasing volume of international trade and maritime demand, the requirements for the stability and reliability of the global shipping system are also increasing. The research on the network efficiency of Chinese ports for global shipping can not only examine the importance of Chinese ports in the shipping network but also find out the aspects that need to be improved in the construction of the port’s climate adaptability in the resilience assessment to strengthen port construction and further improve the efficiency of the network. The current study builds a shipping network based on RCEP and systematically examines the key ports in China within the networks. The research paper aims to improve the resilience of the ports and the whole shipping network in response to typhoon disasters. As such, this paper focuses on shipping research based on complex networks and network multi-centricity analysis, followed by a ranking of ports. Firstly, this paper uses UCINET 6 software to build a global shipping network. Such a network evaluates the centrality of ports, calculates the degree of centrality, proximity to centrality, and centrality, and scores them according to the ranking. Then, it selects the top 20 ports in China according to the ranking and researches network efficiency for the listed ports considering the typhoon risks. The analysis of network robustness, average shortest path length, and network efficiency are carried out for the shipping network and China’s essential port nodes in the network. According to the experimental results, no matter the robustness, average shortest path length, or network efficiency, when the important ports of China in the shipping network are affected, they will cause different degrees of impact, and the performance loss caused by multiple ports is higher than that of a single port. They emphasise the significant impact of typhoons on multiple ports and remind people to minimise losses as much as possible based on experimental results, ensuring the stable operation of ports and improving resilience in typhoon prevention under the changing climate. Additionally, they provide a solid foundation to further sustain global shipping network resilience.

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“…While theoretical developments are still being made, vine copulas on a different number of variables have found application in virtually all fields of science and engineering. Recent example applications can be found in finance, business and economics 4 – 10 , coastal management 11 , earth sciences 12 – 14 and engineering 15 – 23 , where the number of variables in their respective vine copula models ranges from 3 to 10 variables. In a recent study by the authors, vine copulas on 6 variables (23,040 models) are fit to two sets of variables including waves, currents and hydrodynamic forces acting on a submerged floating tunnel for its evaluation under different design configurations.…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Chimera: An atlas of regular vines on up to 8 nodes

et al. 2023

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Vine copulas have become the standard tool for modelling complex probabilistic dependence. It has been shown that the number of regular vines grows extremely quickly with the number of nodes. Chimera is the first attempt to map the vast space of regular vines. Software for operating with regular vines is available for R, matlab and Python. However, no dataset containing all regular vines is available. Our atlas of regular vines, Chimera, comprises all 24 4 × 4 matrices representing regular vines on 4 nodes, 480 5 × 5 matrices representing regular vines on 5 nodes, 23,040 6 × 6 matrices representing regular vines on 6 nodes, 2,580,480 7 × 7 matrices representing regular vines on 7 nodes and 660,602,880 8 × 8 matrices representing regular vines on 8 nodes. Regular vines in Chimera are classified according to their tree-equivalence class. We fit all regular vines to synthetic data to demonstrate the potential of Chimera. Chimera provides thus a tool for researchers to navigate this vast space in an orderly fashion.

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Impact of local port disruption on global container trade: An example of stressing testing Chinese ports using a D-vine copula-based quantile regression

Cited by 10 publications

References 46 publications

Assessing the efficiency and vulnerability of global liner shipping network

Assessing the efficiency and vulnerability of global liner shipping network

Analysis of the Network Efficiency of Chinese Ports in Global Shipping under the Impacts of Typhoons

Chimera: An atlas of regular vines on up to 8 nodes

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