Impact of Local Global Warming on Rainfall and Annual Cocoa Water Requirements in the Regions of Lôh-Djiboua and Gôh in West-central Côte d'Ivoire

Abstract

Aims: To understand the role of the interannual variability of cumulative rainfall and maximum dry sequences in cocoa production in the Centre-Ouest, one of the cocoa basins in Côte d'Ivoire, in order to propose technical routes more adapted to current rainfall conditions.
 Study Design: Collection, analysis and processing of daily rainfall data collected by the rain gauges at Divo and Gagnoa stations.
 Location and Duration of Studies: Divo Cocoa Research Station of the National Center for Agricultural Research, between January 2017 and June 2019.
 Methodology: The rainfall regime of each locality was determined to assess the impact of rainfall changes on the seasonality of rainfall. The interannual variability of rainfall was studied from the reduced centred rainfall indices. The break years in the time series were detected at both stations from the Khrono Stat software. The interannual cumulative rainfall were analysed for each station and compared to the minimum threshold allowed for cocoa trees. The means of the maximum interannual dry sequences and their probabilities of occurrence were determined using the agrometeorological software called Instat + Version 3.37.
 Results: The rainfall regime in the area studied (west-central Côte d'Ivoire) has not been modified by the post-rupture rainfall recession as is the case in other parts of the country; it remains a bimodal system characterized by two rainy seasons and two dries during the year. The Divo and Gagnoa regions have been facing a general recession in rainfall since 1966 in Gagnoa and 1972 in Divo. However, the locality of Gagnoa has experienced an increase in rainfall since 2000. Most of the rupture detection tests identified rainfall rupture dates identical to those indicated by the interannual variability highlighted by the rainfall indices. In Gagnoa and Divo, the interannual cumulative rainfalls after the years of rainfall break are reduced compared to those before these rainfall accidents. This situation has led to an increase in the maximum interannual dry sequences in the departments studied.
 Conclusion: Local climate change has created difficult rainfall conditions after years of rainfall break for cocoa trees as their water needs are increasingly reduced, especially in Divo in Lôh-Djiboua where the downward trend in rainfall has been continuous since 1972. In Gagnoa since the beginning of this century, there has been a new wet period that allows rainfall to adequately meet the cocoa tree's water requirements.

Cocoa breeding must take into account the competitive value of cocoa trees

“…2). Climate change in Côte d'Ivoire has led to more frequent and longer drought periods (Brou et al, 2005;Ehounou et al, 2019;Kassin et al, 2008). This climatic variability between years may explain the variations of the model.…”