Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia

Abstract

This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and 193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and 10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was 3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD 24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.

Consistent Changes in Land-Use/Land-Cover in Semi-Arid Areas: Implications on Ecosystem Service Delivery and Adaptation in the Limpopo Basin, Botswana

“…The decline in natural vegetation between 1995 and 2016 at a rate of 50.67 km 2 /year, was characterized by a significant increase in croplands of 34.02 km 2 /year during the same period. This indicates an increased demand for agricultural land, particularly for crop production similar to studies in Central Ethiopia [3].…”

“…Changes in land use highlight the influence of human activities that have a direct impact on the delivery of ecosystem services from the landscape [1,2]. Economic growth and development often trigger such changes and result in several trade-offs with human dependence on the natural environment [3]. In recent years, humans have exerted considerable pressure on the natural environment.…”

“…), and human disturbance are among the key factors affecting ecosystem service provision in their study of the Northeast Forest Belt in China [12]. Another study by Biratu et al evaluated the impact of landscape management scenarios on ecosystem service values in Central Ethiopia and found that cultivated land increased by 22% under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, whereas forest, water body, wetland, and shrubland were reduced [3]. The study, however, showed that forest cover increased, while bare land was reduced by 21% and 25% under the Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and the Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC) scenarios.…”

Impacts of Best Management Practices on Runoff, Soil Loss, and Sediment Yield in the Megech Watershed, Ethiopia

“…Such investments in physical and agronomic BMP technologies are able to result in the protection of ecosystem services [11]; enhance freshwater availability [12,13]; limit runoff, soil loss, and sediment yields [14][15][16]; improve soil moisture and crop production [17,18]; amend crop yield; improve food security; and improve household incomes [19][20][21]. Despite such efforts to limit runoff, sediment output, or soil Water 2023, 15, 788 2 of 20 erosion, it is challenging to implement improvements because of the growth of agriculture and urban areas [22,23].…”

Evolution of Urban Ecosystem Service Value and a Scenario Analysis Based on Land Utilization Changes: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

“…Early research has mainly focused on the impact of current or past land use changes on ESV on a regional scale, while there are few studies on future space regulation and development based on land use change and the evaluation of ESV. Some studies in recent years have gradually analyzed changes in ecosystem services and spatial differentiation by simulating changes in future land use patterns and creating development scenarios [24][25][26][27][28]. Cities are drastically affected by human activities, and simulating land use changes in cities is more elaborate and complex than in natural ecosystems [29].…”