Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Domenico, Laura Di; Sabbatini, C; Pullano, Giulia; Lévy-Brühl, Daniel; Colizza, Vittoria

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.15.2100272

Cited by 25 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(20 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The second lockdown was lifted with the application of an 8 pm curfew, then anticipated to 6 pm in January. The resulting effective reproductive number was estimated to be 0.90 [95% CI: 0.86-0.93] for the historical strains and 1.43 [95% CI: 1.37-1.48] for the Alpha variant at the end of January 10 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using Île-de-France as a case study, we compared the efficacy of different measures against their sustainability and potential for case resurgence due to imperfect adherence of the population. Given the high incidence levels reached by the epidemic in the region by mid-March 2021, exceeding the peak of the second wave 10 , only high intensity interventions would have been able to rapidly curb viral circulation, allowing the region to considerably reduce the burden of hospitalization after only 2 weeks and despite loss of adherence. Once incidence substantially declined, the management of the epidemic could largely benefit from test-trace-isolate strategies 8,43 and the large-scale availability of self-test kits for iterative screening 45 , while immunization due to vaccination builds up in the population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hospital data are corrected for notification delays and do not suffer changes in detection or sampling, unlike the number of detected cases. As such, they provide a robust data source and have been used throughout 2020 in France for pandemic assessment and response [8][9][10][11] .…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, in the spring of 2021 European countries still experienced sustained viral circulation due to the Alpha variant. As the prospect of entering a new pandemic phase through vaccination was drawing closer, a key challenge remained on how to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life. Methods Focusing on the third wave in France during spring 2021, we simulate intervention scenarios of varying intensity and duration, with potential waning of adherence over time, based on past mobility data and modeling estimates. We identify optimal strategies by balancing efficacy of interventions with a data-driven “distress” index, integrating intensity and duration of social distancing. Results We show that moderate interventions would require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Shorter strict lockdowns are largely more effective than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom. Conclusions Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Computational models and numerical simulations are essential tools for the understanding of epidemic spread [1,2], at scales ranging from global to local [3][4][5][6]. They have been used in the past to examine pandemic scenarios, and more extensively during the current COVID-19 pandemic, to evaluate the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) ranging from international travel restrictions [4,5,[7][8][9] to lockdowns or curfews aiming at reducing global mobility and interactions [10][11][12][13], to more targeted measures such as isolation of positive cases, contact tracing, telework, partial closures of schools or surveillance by regular testing [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of contact data resolution on the evaluation of interventions in mathematical models of infectious diseases

Contreras

Colosi

Bassignana

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Computational models offer a unique setting to test strategies to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, providing useful insights to applied public health. To be actionable, models need to be informed by data, which can be available at different levels of detail. While high-resolution data describing contacts between individuals are increasingly available, data gathering remains challenging, especially during a health emergency. Many models thus use synthetic data or coarse information to evaluate intervention protocols. Here, we evaluate how the representation of contact data might affect the impact of various strategies in models, in the realm of COVID-19 transmission in educational and work contexts. Starting from high-resolution contact data, we use detailed to coarse data representations to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and simulate different mitigation strategies. We find that coarse data representations estimate a lower risk of superspreading events. However, the rankings of protocols according to their efficiency or cost remain coherent across representations, ensuring the consistency of model findings to inform public health advice. Caution should be taken, however, on the quantitative estimations of those benefits and costs triggering the adoption of protocols, as these may depend on data representation.

show abstract

“…It was then detected in other countries including the U.S. [10,11]. A third variant, called 202012/01 (also known as 501Y.V1 or B.1.1.7) was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.) [12], and soon after became the primary emerging variant in many countries [13][14][15][16][17][18]. Another new variant which has been designated a Variant Under Investigation (VUI) by Public Health England (PHE); also called B.1.617 variant that was first detected in India on October 5, 2020 [19,20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Analysis of the Novel Variants of SARS-CoV-2 and Forecasting in North America

Quinonez

Vahed

Shahraki

et al. 2021

Viruses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: little is known about the forecasting of new variants of SARS-COV-2 in North America and the interaction of variants with vaccine-derived neutralizing antibodies. Methods: the affinity scores of the spike receptor-binding domain (S-RBD) of B.1.1.7, B. 1.351, B.1.617, and P.1 variants in interaction with the neutralizing antibody (CV30 isolated from a patient), and human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) receptor were predicted using the template-based computational modeling. From the Nextstrain global database, we identified prevalent mutations of S-RBD of SARS-CoV-2 from December 2019 to April 2021. Pre- and post-vaccination time series forecasting models were developed based on the prediction of neutralizing antibody affinity scores for S-RBD of the variants. Results: the proportion of the B.1.1.7 variant in North America is growing rapidly, but the rate will reduce due to high affinity (~90%) to the neutralizing antibody once herd immunity is reached. Currently, the rates of isolation of B. 1.351, B.1.617, and P.1 variants are slowly increasing in North America. Herd immunity is able to relatively control these variants due to their low affinity (~70%) to the neutralizing antibody. The S-RBD of B.1.617 has a 110% increased affinity score to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) in comparison to the wild-type structure, making it highly infectious. Conclusion: The newly emerged B.1.351, B.1.617, and P.1 variants escape from vaccine-induced neutralizing immunity and continue circulating in North America in post- herd immunity era. Our study strongly suggests that a third dose of vaccine is urgently needed to cover novel variants with affinity scores (equal or less than 70%) to eliminate developing viral mutations and reduce transmission rates.

show abstract

Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Cited by 25 publications

References 11 publications

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic

Impact of contact data resolution on the evaluation of interventions in mathematical models of infectious diseases

Structural Analysis of the Novel Variants of SARS-CoV-2 and Forecasting in North America

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About