Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Domenico, Laura Di; Pullano, Giulia; Sabbatini, C; Lévy-Brühl, Daniel; Colizza, Vittoria

doi:10.1101/2021.02.14.21251708

Cited by 17 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In parallel, mathematical models anticipate how the rise of 501Y.V1 and other variants may affect the course of the pandemic and the impact of control measures [9,10]. It will also be important to determine how spatial heterogeneities in the spread of variants may affect control strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021

et al. 2021

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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variant 20I/501Y.V1 (VOC-202012/1 or GR/501Y.V1) is concerning given its increased transmissibility. We reanalysed 11,916 PCR-positive tests (41% of all positive tests) performed on 7–8 January 2021 in France. The prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1 was 3.3% among positive tests nationwide and 6.9% in the Paris region. Analysing the recent rise in the prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1, we estimate that, in the French context, 20I/501Y.V1 is 52–69% more transmissible than the previously circulating lineages, depending on modelling assumptions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021

et al. 2021

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“…Seven studies contributed data which may be relevant to modifying the current approach to vaccine scheduling and delivery (see Table 1). Of the seven studies, 5 were modeling [40][41][42] or lab-based studies 43,44 which were not critically appraised. The two studies that were critically apprised were of low quality.…”

Section: Critical Appraisalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Domenico et al used a discrete, stochastic model integrating demography, age profile, social contacts, and mobility data over time to model the impact of social distancing measures on two strains of SARS-CoV-2 (historical, B.1.1.7). 40 Strain circulation dynamics for France, Ile-de-France regions and Nouvelle Aquitaine were secured through Santé Publique France on January 28, 2021. The model estimated that the progressive social distancing implemented in January 2021 brought the reproductive number of the historical strain below 1 but the B.1.1.7 cases increased exponentially with the estimated reproduction (R) about 1 in all three regions.…”

Section: Physical Distancingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Domenico et al provided a unique mathematical model to estimate the role that curfew measures could have on hospitalization in France. 40 They found that if the epidemic progressed under curfew conditions (6pm nightly, implemented nationwide January 16 th ) before school holidays and vaccination is accelerated, hospital capacity would be reached around week 13 in France (which had 2.2% B.1.1.7 penetration), week 12 in Île-de-France (which had the highest B.1.1.7 penetration, 6.9%), and week 14 in Nouvelle Aquitaine (which had the lowest B.1.1.7 penetration 1.7%). The partial relaxation of social distancing (estimated at 15% increase in effective reproduction number) would shorten these estimates by at least 1 week.…”

Section: Key Findings For Consideration Includementioning

confidence: 99%

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Public Health and Health Systems Impacts of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Rapid Scoping Review

Curran

Dol

Boulos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: As of April 2021, three SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC: B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1) have been detected in over 132 countries. Increased transmissibility of VOC has implications for public health measures and health system arrangements. This rapid scoping review aims to provide a synthesis of current evidence related to public health measures and health system arrangements associated with VOC. Methods: Rapid scoping review. Seven databases were searched up to April 7, 2021 for terms related to VOC, transmission, public health and health systems. A grey literature search was conducted up to April 14, 2021. Title, abstracts and full text were screened independently by two reviewers. Data were double extracted using a standardized form. Studies were included if they reported on at least one of the VOC and public health or health system outcomes. Results: Of the 2487 articles and 59 grey literature sources retrieved, 37 studies and 21 guidance documents were included. Included studies used a wide range of designs and methods. Most of the studies and guidance documents reported on B.1.1.7, and 18 studies and 4 reports provided data for consideration in relation to public health measures. Public health measures, including lockdowns, physical distancing, testing and contact tracing, were identified as critical adjuncts to a comprehensive vaccination campaign. No studies reported on handwashing or masking procedures related to VOC. For health system arrangements, 17 studies were identified. Some studies found an increase in hospitalization due to B.1.1.7 but no difference in length of stay or ICU admission. Six studies found an increased risk of death ranging from 15-67% with B.1.1.7 compared non-B.1.1.7, but three studies reported no change. One study reported on the effectiveness of personal protective equipment in reducing VOC transmission in the hospital. No studies reported on screening staff and visitors, adjusting service provisions, or adjusting patient accommodations and shared spaces, which is a significant gap in the literature. Guidance documents did not tend to cite any evidence and were thus assumed to be based on expert opinion. Conclusion: While the findings should be interpreted with caution as most of the sources identified were preprints, findings suggest a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., masking, physical distancing, lockdowns, testing) should be employed alongside a vaccine strategy to improve population and health system outcomes. While the findings are mixed on the impact of VOC on health system arrangements, the evidence is trending towards increased hospitalization and death.

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“…Many studies have tried to estimate the relative strength of the novel variant from the observed relative speed (Davies et al, 2021;Leung et al, 2021;Volz et al, 2021;Zhao et al, 2021). Some studies have instead assumed a value of the relative strength of the novel variant and tried to predict its relative speed to determine when a new variant will become the dominant strain (Davies et al, 2021;Di Domenico et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roles of generation-interval distributions in shaping relative epidemic strength, speed, and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Park

Bolker

Funk

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Inferring the relative strength (i.e., the ratio of reproduction numbers, ℛvar/ℛwt) and relative speed (i.e., the difference between growth rates, rvar −rwt) of new SARS-CoV-2 variants compared to their wild types is critical to predicting and controlling the course of the current pandemic. Multiple studies have estimated the relative strength of new variants from the observed relative speed, but they typically neglect the possibility that the new variants have different generation intervals (i.e., time between infection and transmission), which determines the relationship between relative strength and speed. Notably, the increasingly predominant B.1.1.7 variant may have a longer infectious period (and therefore, a longer generation interval) than prior dominant lineages. Here, we explore how differences in generation intervals between a new variant and the wild type affect the relationship between relative strength and speed. We use simulations to show how neglecting these differences can lead to biases in estimates of relative strength in practice and to illustrate how such biases can be assessed. Finally, we discuss implications for control: if new variants have longer generation intervals then speed-like interventions such as contact tracing become more effective, whereas strength-like interventions such as social distancing become less effective.

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Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Cited by 17 publications

References 32 publications

Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021

Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021

Public Health and Health Systems Impacts of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Rapid Scoping Review

Roles of generation-interval distributions in shaping relative epidemic strength, speed, and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants

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