Impact of Inner Heliospheric Boundary Conditions on Solar Wind Predictions at Earth

Gonzi, Siegfried; Weinzierl, Marion; Bocquet, François-Xavier; Bisi, M. M.; Odstrčil, D.; Jackson, B. V.; Yeates, Anthony R.; Jackson, D. R.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N.

doi:10.1029/2020sw002499

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 113 publications

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“…Furthermore, they can provide an estimate of CME kinematics with a bare minimum of observations, requiring only coronagraph and/or HI observations from a single perspective. This is in contrast to more complex modeling procedures, such as the numerical MHD space weather forecasts produced using models such as Enlil, EUHFORIA, HelioMAS, or HelioLFM (Odstrcil, 2003; Poedts et al., 2020; Riley et al., 2001; Merkin et al., 2016); these models are much more computationally expensive and require more observational constraints to estimate the background solar wind structure, which also has significant associated uncertainty (Gonzi et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data

et al. 2022

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Geometric modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modeling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space weather prediction. These models assume that solar wind structure does not affect the evolution of the CME, which is an unquantified source of uncertainty. We use a large number of Cone CME simulations with the HUXt solar wind model to quantify the scale of uncertainty introduced into geometric modeling and the ELEvoHI CME arrival times by solar wind structure. We produce a database of simulations, representing an average, a fast, and an extreme CME scenario, each independently propagating through 100 different ambient solar wind environments. Synthetic heliospheric imager observations of these simulations are then used with a range of geometric models to estimate the CME kinematics. The errors of geometric modeling depend on the location of the observer, but do not seem to depend on the CME scenario. In general, geometric models are biased towards predicting CME apex distances that are larger than the true value. For these CME scenarios, geometric modeling errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region. Furthermore, geometric modeling errors increase with the level of solar wind structure in the path of the CME. The ELEvoHI arrival time errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region, with mean absolute arrival time errors of 8.2 ± 1.2 h, 8.3 ± 1.0 h, and 5.8 ± 0.9 h for the average, fast, and extreme CME scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data

et al. 2022

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“…Therefore, an ensemble approach to modeling the background solar wind using different magnetic field maps combined with ensemble CME modeling may lead to more robust CME arrival forecasts. The influence of different input magnetic field maps in the context of global MHD simulations of the heliosphere has been explored by Jin et al (2022), while more information on the impact of inner heliospheric boundary conditions generated with different models can be found in Gonzi et al (2021). Additionally, it is important to consider the uncertainties regarding the predicted shock arrival time that are intrinsic to the choice of CME propagation model-in this case, Enlil.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

et al. 2022

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Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360°" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble." We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shockaccelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.Plain Language Summary Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are phenomena from the Sun that are able to cause significant disturbances at Earth and other planets. Reliable predictions of these events and their effects are among the major goals of space weather forecasts, which aim to tackle all processes related to solar activity that can endanger human technology and society. In recent years, the breadth of space weather science has started to encompass other locations than Earth, ranging from all solar system planets to spacecraft scattered throughout space. In this work, we test our current capabilities in predicting space weather events in the inner solar system (i.e., within the orbit of Mars) for a period in late 2020. We use a chain of models that are able to simulate the background solar wind as well as transient phenomena such as CMEs and SEPs, and compare our results with spacecraft measurements from six well-separated locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that our current forecasting tools, despite their limitations, can successfully provide reasonable predictions of both CMEs and SEPs, especially out to several tens of degrees around the corresponding eruption source region on the Sun.

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“…Therefore, an ensemble approach to modelling the background solar wind using different magnetic field maps combined with ensemble CME modelling may lead to more robust CME arrival forecasts. The influence of different input magnetic field maps in the context of global MHD simulations of the heliosphere has been explored by Jin et al (2022), whilst more information on the impact of inner heliospheric boundary conditions generated with different models can be found in Gonzi et al (2021). Additionally, it is important to consider the uncertainties regarding the predicted shock arrival time that are intrinsic to the choice of CME propagation model-in this case, Enlil.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Palmerio,

Lee,

Mays

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multi-point measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyse the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, i.e. the M4.4 flare of November 29 and the C7.4 flare of December 7. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60 • east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360 • " using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modelling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble". We validate our results using in-situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here. Plain Language SummaryCoronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are phenomena from the Sun that are able to cause significant disturbances at Earth and other planets. Reliable predictions of these events and their effects are amongst the major goals of space weather forecasts, which aim to tackle all processes related to solar activity that can endanger human technology and society. In recent years, the breadth of space weather science has started to encompass other locations than Earth, ranging from all solar system planets to spacecraft scattered throughout space. In this work, we test our current capabilities in predicting space weather events in the inner solar system (i.e., within the orbit of Mars) for a period in late 2020. We use a chain of models that are able to simulate the background solar wind as well as transient phenomena such as CMEs and SEPs, and compare our results with spacecraft measurements from six well-separated locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that our current forecasting tools, despite their limitations, can successfully provide reasonable predictions of both CMEs and SEPs, especially out to several tens of degrees around the corresponding eruption source region on the Sun.

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Impact of Inner Heliospheric Boundary Conditions on Solar Wind Predictions at Earth

Cited by 19 publications

References 113 publications

Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data

Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

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