Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India

Sahu, Netrananda; Saini, Atul; Behera, Swadhin K.; Sayama, Takahiro; Nayak, Sridhara; Sahu, Limonlisa; Duan, Weili; Avtar, Ram; Yamada, Masafumi; Singh, R. B.; Takara, Kaoru

doi:10.3390/su12177023

Cited by 18 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 73 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…Climate variability and seasonality are major determinants of agricultural productivity in Bihar. Given the dominant rainfed conditions of rice-wheat systems, while the productivity of the dominant kharif rice is highly determined by anomalies in monsoon rains, temperatures strongly determine the productivity of wheat in winter [12,17].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Planting <em>Aman</em> Rice at Monsoon Onset Could Mitigate the Impact of Temperature Stress on Rice-Wheat Systems of Bihar, India

Montes¹,

Urfels²,

Han³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The rice-wheat rotation is the dominant cropping system in Bihar, where food security of the rural population depends heavily on the production of rice and wheat. In Bihar, climatic shocks induced by low temperatures and terminal heat stress can significantly affect rice and wheat yields. The present work evaluates the benefit of using the monsoon onset as the date for planting rice in reducing thermal stress on rice-wheat systems. High-resolution gridded crop simulations using the APSIM model were performed to simulate potential yields of rice and wheat using the monsoon onset and the farmers’ practice as planting dates. The monsoon onset was calculated using an agronomic definition and farmers’ practice dates were estimated using satellite data. Model outputs were analyzed in terms of planting dates, yields, and the incidence of low temperature stress on rice and high temperature stress on wheat by means of the APSIM yields limiting factors. The results show that the rice planting and harvest dates using the monsoon onset are in general 20-30 days earlier, decreasing the incidence of thermal stress in rice and wheat, and generating higher and more stable yields. These results can help design mitigation strategies for the impacts of climate shocks induced by low and high temperature events in the context of the advances in sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, targeting climate services for farmers in Bihar.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much attention has been paid to summer monsoon rains and mean temperatures variability over the IGP as determinants of crops productivity [5,12]. However, less emphasis has been placed on the impacts of adverse temperatures on rice-wheat systems and on the development of adaptation strategies based on management decisions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planting <em>Aman</em> Rice at Monsoon Onset Could Mitigate the Impact of Temperature Stress on Rice-Wheat Systems of Bihar, India

Montes¹,

Urfels²,

Han³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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show abstract

“…India is a tropical country with the summer monsoon season in June-July-August-September (hereafter JJAS). JJAS is generally defined as the monsoon season in India because the major chunk of the summer monsoon rainfall amount is obtained during this period of the year (Sahu et al, 2020;Saini and Sahu, 2021). India has a huge dependence on the behavior of the monsoon system from its onset to withdrawal (Prasad and Hayashi, 2005;Wang et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling Intricacies of Monsoon Attributes in Homogenous Monsoon Regions of India

et al. 2022

Self Cite

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India observes the summer monsoon in June–July–August–September (JJAS) season, and the livelihood security of a huge population depends on it. The impact of the monsoon onset timing, length of monsoon season, rainfall amount, and related extreme events is huge on the Indian economy. Therefore, understanding the inherent intricacies needed a detailed investigation. In five homogenous monsoon regions of India, the trend of monsoon onset and the length of monsoon season are examined. The association between 1) monsoon onset ∼ rainfall amount, 2) length of monsoon season ∼ rainfall amount, and 3) monsoon onset ∼ length of monsoon season is investigated. Subsequently, the behavior of rainfall and extreme excess days in the ±1 standard deviation (SD) length of monsoon season is also examined in detail. The trend for monsoon onset shows late onset in all the homogenous monsoon regions except the northeast region. The length of monsoon season is found increasing significantly with high magnitude in west central and northwest regions. A significantly strong negative correlation (∼−0.6) for monsoon onset timing ∼ length of monsoon season is observed. Therefore, the change in rainfall anomaly, extreme excess days, and rainy days is done concerning the length of the monsoon season. In the cases of the −1 SD (+1 SD) length of monsoon season, rainfall anomaly and extreme excess days are low (high) in most parts of the homogenous monsoon regions. Extreme excess days showed a significant association with rainy days, which indicates a high possibility of rainy days converting into extreme excess days. However, the increase in extreme excess days in the +1 SD length of monsoon season is limited to a great extent in JJAS and June only. Morlet wavelet power spectrum shows the delay (advance) of power in −1SD (+1 SD) length of monsoon season.

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“…In Morocco, Bouras et al [30] assessed climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements and wheat grain and found that future irrigation water demand and grain yields would decrease by 13-42% and 7-30%, respectively, during the 2050s and 2090s for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Studies have shown that agricultural production has been reduced due to climate change impacts in India [31,32]. Such yield declines were attributed to (1) reduced rainfall, (2) altered distribution of seasonal rainfall, particularly during critical crop growth stages, (3) severe heat stress events around anthesis, and (4) increased rates of crop development causing early maturity (e.g., [33,34]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Water Demand, Grain Yield, and Biomass Yield of Wheat Crop in Nepal

Kaini

Harrison

Gardner

et al. 2022

Water

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The Nepalese Sunsari Morang Irrigation district is the lifeblood of millions of people in the Koshi River basin. Despite its fundamental importance to food security, little is known about the impacts of climate change on future irrigation demand and grain yields in this region. Here, we examined the impacts of climate change on the irrigation demand and grain yield of wheat crop. Climate change was simulated using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5 for three time horizons (2016–2045, 2036–2065, and 2071–2100) in the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). For the field data’s measured period (2018–2020), we showed that farmers applied only 25% of the irrigation water required to achieve the maximum potential grain yield. Actual yields were less than 50% of the potential yields. Projected irrigation water demand is likely to increase for RCP4.5 (3%) but likely to decrease under RCP8.5 (8%) due to the truncated crop duration and lower maturity biomass by the end of the 21st century. However, simulated yields declined by 20%, suggesting that even irrigation will not be enough to mitigate the severe and detrimental effects of climate change on crop production. While our results herald positive implications for irrigation demand in the region, the implications for regional food security may be dire.

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Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India

Cited by 18 publications

References 73 publications

Planting <em>Aman</em> Rice at Monsoon Onset Could Mitigate the Impact of Temperature Stress on Rice-Wheat Systems of Bihar, India

Planting <em>Aman</em> Rice at Monsoon Onset Could Mitigate the Impact of Temperature Stress on Rice-Wheat Systems of Bihar, India

Unraveling Intricacies of Monsoon Attributes in Homogenous Monsoon Regions of India

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Water Demand, Grain Yield, and Biomass Yield of Wheat Crop in Nepal

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