Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Gilleland, Eric

doi:10.1002/2016gl068432

Cited by 107 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…To the north, we may be seeing quicker activated photochemistry with respect to temperature or evidence of suppression of O 3 by high temperatures. This suppression has been identified previously, with one study implicating enhanced PAN decomposition and reduced isoprene emissions (48), and another study finding that the suppression is caused not by temperature-dependent effects on chemistry or emissions, but rather by a breakdown in the linearity of meteorology-O 3 correlations (44). In any case, it is not clear why this relationship changes at 40°N.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…The greatest co-occurrence frequencies for all event combinations are seen in the northeast, >50% for any two co-occurring events and ∼30% for all three. The lowest co-occurrence frequencies are found in Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the western edge of the domain (44). The generally lower (higher) cooccurrences in the southwest (northeast) imply that the extremes are caused by different (similar) synoptic drivers.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Schnell

Prather

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

152

142

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Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) of commensurately gridded (1°x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April-September) surface ozone (O 3 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O 3 , +6 μg m −3 for PM 2.5 , and +1.7°C for TX. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.extremes | ozone | particulate matter | heat waves

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Schnell

Prather

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

152

142

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“…By extension, such methods can also provide insight into a model's usefulness for a range of possible (future) environmental conditions. However, care needs to be exercised when employing process-oriented model evaluation approaches because the observed relationships between ozone and the co-measured meteorological field or tracer may be complicated by other competing influences (e.g., Steiner et al, 2010;BrownSteiner et al, 2015;Shen et al, 2016)., or may change over time (e.g., Hassler et al, 2016).…”

Section: Summary Of Evaluation Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

Young

Naik

Fiore

et al. 2018

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

245

274

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The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for the problem being addressed, whether biases can be tolerated or corrected, whether the model is appropriately constituted, and whether there is a way to satisfactorily quantify the uncertainty.

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“…This C to 42° C. It is well known and documented that episodes of substantial ozone generation due to pollution occur in hot and stagnant conditions (e.g. Banta et al, 1998;Valente et al, 1998;Jacob et al, 1993Jacob et al, , 2009Lin et al, 2001;Camalier et al, 2007;Coates et al, 2016;Shen et al, 2016). 15 In addition to the relatively cold temperatures, the conditions could not be characterized as stagnant (Camalier et al, 2007) for most of the flights.…”

Section: Comparison Between Lidar and In Situ Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Airborne Lidar Measurements of Aerosol and Ozone Above the Canadian Oil Sands Region

Aggarwal¹,

Whiteway²,

Seabrook³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Aircraft based lidar measurements of atmospheric aerosol and ozone were conducted to study 10 air pollution from the oil sands extraction industry in northern Alberta. Significant amounts of aerosol were observed in the polluted air within the surface boundary layer, up to heights of 1 km to 1.5 km above ground. The ozone mixing ratio measured in the polluted boundary layer air was equal to or less than the background ozone mixing ratio, in the range of 10 ppbv to 35 ppbv. On one of the flights, the lidar measurements detected a layer of forest fire smoke above the surface boundary layer in which the 15 ozone mixing ratio had a maximum value of 70 ppbv. Measurements of the linear depolarization ratio in the aerosol backscatter were obtained with a ground based lidar and this aided in the discrimination between the separate emission sources from industry and forest fires. The retrieval of ozone abundance from the lidar measurements required the development of a method to account for the interference from the substantial aerosol content within the surface boundary layer.

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Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

Cited by 107 publications

References 37 publications

Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

Airborne Lidar Measurements of Aerosol and Ozone Above the Canadian Oil Sands Region

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