Impact of high-risk conjunctions on Active Debris Removal target selection

Abstract

Space debris simulations show that if current space launches continue unchanged, spacecraft operations might become difficult in the congested space environment. It has been suggested that Active Debris Removal (ADR) might be necessary in order to prevent such a situation.Selection of objects to be targeted by ADR is considered important because removal of non-relevant objects will unnecessarily increase the cost of ADR. One of the factors to be used in this ADR target selection is the collision probability accumulated by every object. This paper shows the impact of high-probability conjunctions on the collision probability accumulated by individual objects as well as the probability of any collision occurring in orbit. Such conjunctions cannot be predicted far in advance and, consequently, not all the objects that will be involved in such dangerous conjunctions can be removed through ADR. Therefore, a debris remediation method that would address such events at short notice, and thus help prevent likely collisions, is suggested.

Considering the collision probability of Active Debris Removal missions

“…the rest of conjunctions) that contribute a large portion to the total collision probability. Similar behaviour was observed by Lidtke et al (2015) when analysing all objects in the public catalogue. Specifically, for 27.8% of the objects, a single event contributed 10% or more to the P C accumulated over one month.…”

A study of a target identification method for an active debris removal system

“…Lidtke presented an area estimation strategy based on the MASTER 2009 model (Meteoroid And Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference Model), developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). 22 MASTER 2009 is space environment model that uses real measurement data and stochastic methods to provide size information based on the object type (i.e. payload, rocket body, or other).…”

“…The research of Lidtke is noteworthy. 22 In this research, target objects were selected for removal in a in a long-term ADR mission based on the deterministic collision probability and mass. Multiple two-line element (TLE) data sets were used to determine the collision probability and covariance, and the size of objects was obtained using a lookup table.…”