Impact of Heat Waves on the Redistribution of Tourist Flows: The Case of Spain

Abstract

Heat waves represents a major concern for the tourism industry in the Mediterranean area. Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the study of the influence of high temperatures and their effects on tourist behavior. This research aims to develop a structural model that allows measuring how heat waves affect the behavior of external tourist demand in coastal destinations. The results are useful for the design by tourist destinations of adaptation measures to climate change. The proposed hypotheses have been contrasted using non-linear structural equations (SEM), estimated with data from the National Institute of Statistics on external demand in Spain. The results confirm lower tourist flows with the increase in high temperatures to the coasts of the Spanish Mediterranean area from traditional source markets, such as the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the tourist flow to the Balearic Islands decreases with high temperatures.