Impact of Global Warming on Environments for Apple and Satsuma Mandarin Production Estimated from Changes of the Annual Mean Temperature

Sugiura, Toshihiko; Yokozawa, Masayuki

doi:10.2503/jjshs.73.72

Cited by 49 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Unsuitable tion estimated on the basis of changes in annual mean air temperature, most of the current satsuma mandarinproducing regions in Japan will become unfavorable for growing this crop by the 2060s (Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004).…”

Section: ) Judging Suitable Locations For Tankan Cultivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies on the impacts of global warming on fruit production have predicted changes in yield (Santos et al, 2011;Stockle et al, 2010), fruit quality (Sugiura et al, 2013), and the particular regions suitable for fruit production (Kenny et al, 2000;Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004;White et al, 2006). To make effective plans for adapting to climate change, farmers need to be confident that the projected changes will significantly affect their production, and there need to be technical options available to respond to the changes (IPCC, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicted Changes in Locations Suitable for Tankan Cultivation Due to Global Warming in Japan

Sugiura¹,

Sakamoto²,

Koshita³

et al. 2014

J. Japan. Soc. Hort. Sci.

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Researchers have predicted that most of the current satsuma mandarin-producing regions will become unfavorable for growing this citrus crop by the 2060s owing to global warming. To offer satsuma mandarin growers information for making replanting decisions, we estimated future changes in locations suitable for the cultivation of tankan (Citrus tankan Hayata), the leading subtropical citrus in Japan. The results of fruit-freezing experiments suggested that the threshold air temperature for the cold tolerance of tankan fruit is about -2°C. The locations suitable for tankan were simulated on the basis of future annual mean air temperatures evaluated by the MIROC3.2-HiRes climate model under the SRES-A1B GHG emission scenario and future annual minimum air temperatures calculated from future daily minimum temperatures evaluated by this climate model and the current air temperature variability. The results of the simulation showed that most of the Pacific coastal area from the Kanto Plain and to the west will become suitable for tankan cultivation during 2031-2050, and that coastal areas of the current satsuma mandarin-producing regions in Japan should be suitable for tankan production by 2050. The inland area of southern Kyushu Island, despite its proximity to current tankan-producing regions, is predicted to experience temperatures causing a high frequency of cold injury to tankan fruits even during 2051-2070. Therefore, if satsuma mandarin production becomes difficult on account of increased global warming, tankan could be produced as a substitute in coastal areas of the current satsuma mandarin-producing regions. However, we predict that it will be difficult to produce tankan in inland areas of the current satsuma mandarin-producing regions.

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Section: ) Judging Suitable Locations For Tankan Cultivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicted Changes in Locations Suitable for Tankan Cultivation Due to Global Warming in Japan

Sugiura¹,

Sakamoto²,

Koshita³

et al. 2014

J. Japan. Soc. Hort. Sci.

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“…Nonuniform flowering is thought to be caused by irregular bud endodormancy release, which probably results from global warming (Sugiura et al, 2007). Moreover, the optimal production regions for some fruit trees such as apple (Malus × domestica) are predicted to move to more northern areas of Japan in the near future (Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004); therefore, it is necessary to investigate the genetic factors that control endodormancy. Elucidation of the molecular basis of the regulation of endodormancy in temperate fruit tree species could enable artificial control of endodormancy through cultural practices and will be useful for rapid breeding techniques such as marker-assisted selection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

454-Pyrosequencing of the Transcriptome in Leaf and Flower Buds of Japanese Apricot (Prunus mume Sieb. et Zucc.) at Different Dormant Stages

Habu

Yamane

Igarashi

et al. 2012

J. Japan. Soc. Hort. Sci.

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Bud dormancy in temperate woody perennials is a complex process consisting of three different stages; paradormancy, endodormancy, and ecodormancy. Endodormant buds differ from the other types of dormant buds in that they cannot resume growth under favorable conditions. Because endodormant buds require a certain amount of chilling accumulation for the transition to ecodormancy, genes showing chilling-mediated differential expression patterns are candidates for internal factors controlling endodormancy. To search for genes controlling the endodormancy of Japanese apricot (Prunus mume Sieb. et Zucc.), we performed 454-pyrosequencing to examine gene expression patterns of the dormant leaf and flower buds of Japanese apricot at three different stages of dormancy. We also used buds from branches that had been collected at the endodormant stage and treated with cold or non-cold temperatures. From 485,376 reads generated, we obtained 28,382 contigs and 85,247 singletons, of which 47,401 (41.7%) were annotated by BLAST searches against the non-redundant NCBI protein/ nucleotide database. Among them, only 2,530 sequences showed high sequence similarity to Prunus genes in the database, while the remaining 44,871 sequences showed similarity to known genes of other genera and were novel in Prunus. Functional classification by the gene ontology (GO) term indicated that the genes obtained in this study function in a relatively wide range of biological processes. We searched for up-regulated genes in endodormant leaf and flower buds and found that 74 and 82 genes, respectively, were up-regulated at the endodormant stage as compared with the paradormant stage. About one-third of them, 21 and 25 genes in the leaf and flower buds, respectively, were down-regulated at the ecodormant stage as compared with the endodormant stage. P. mume DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS (PmDAM) genes were among those that were up-regulated preferentially in endodormant buds. From the EST data obtained, we constructed a "Japanese apricot dormant bud EST database" (JADB) for future studies on dormancy in Prunus.

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“…Areas suitable for evergreen fruit trees are expected to expand northward (Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004;Sugiura et al, 2014). This shift in the locations suitable for loquat due to global warming will create a strong need to accurately assess suitable locations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Varietal Assessment of Threshold Air Temperatures for Cold Damage in Loquat Fruit

Sugiura

Hiehata²,

Emiko³

et al. 2016

Hortic J

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Shift in locations suitable for loquat [Eriobotrya japonica (Thunb.) Lindl.] due to global warming leads to a high requirement for accurate assessment of suitable locations. This study aimed to develop a technique for using past winter air temperatures to judge whether an area is suitable for loquat production. The relationship between air temperatures and cold damage levels observed in orchards of four main production areas (Chiba, Kagawa, Nagasaki, and Kagoshima prefectures) for some years were analyzed. The survival rates of young fruit of each variety were positively correlated with the annual minimum air temperature. Threshold air temperatures for cold damage (the air temperature at which the survival rate decreased to 80%) of six varieties ('Tanaka', 'Mogi', 'Natsutayori', 'Nagasakiwase', 'Harutayori', and 'Biwa Nagasaki No. 21') were acquired by using statistically significant linear regressions. 'Tanaka' had excellent cold hardiness, with the lowest threshold air temperature, whereas 'Nagasakiwase' and 'Harutayori' tolerated the cold less well, with higher threshold air temperatures. Locations suitable for production of 'Tanaka' and 'Nagasakiwase' were judged based on the upper limit of the threshold air temperature for cold damage. The current production areas agreed with the locations judged to be suitable for the production of each variety. These results suggest that the threshold air temperatures for cold damage obtained in the present study provide a valid assessment of suitable current and future locations for both varieties.

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Impact of Global Warming on Environments for Apple and Satsuma Mandarin Production Estimated from Changes of the Annual Mean Temperature

Cited by 49 publications

References 4 publications

Predicted Changes in Locations Suitable for Tankan Cultivation Due to Global Warming in Japan

Predicted Changes in Locations Suitable for Tankan Cultivation Due to Global Warming in Japan

454-Pyrosequencing of the Transcriptome in Leaf and Flower Buds of Japanese Apricot (Prunus mume Sieb. et Zucc.) at Different Dormant Stages

Varietal Assessment of Threshold Air Temperatures for Cold Damage in Loquat Fruit

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