Impact of global value chain and technological innovation on China’s industrial greenhouse gas emissions and trend prediction

Abstract

The global value chain has introduced profound changes in international trade, economic development, and technology progress as well as greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. This paper investigated the impact of the global value chain and technological innovation on greenhouse gas emissions by introducing a partially linear functional-coefficient model based on panel data of 15 industrial sectors in China from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, the greenhouse gas emission trends of China’s industrial sectors from 2024 to 2035 were predicted using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. The results showed that (1) Greenhouse gas emissions were affected negatively by global value chain position and independent innovation. Nevertheless, foreign innovation had the opposite effect. (2) The results of the partially linear functional-coefficient model implied that the inhibitory effect of independent innovation on GHG emissions decreased with an improvement in the global value chain position. (3) The positive effect of foreign innovation on greenhouse gas emissions increased and then, decreased as the global value chain position improved. (4) The prediction results indicated that greenhouse gas emissions will continue on an upward trend from 2024 to 2035, while industrial carbon dioxide emissions should peak at 10.21 Gt in 2028. This carbon-peaking goal would be achieved in China’s industrial sector by actively improving the global value chain position. Addressing these issues will enable China to take full advantage of the development opportunities of participating in the global value chain.

Advances and future trends in research on carbon emissions reduction in China from the perspective of bibliometrics

“…The keyword with the highest emergence intensity (5.05) is "carbon emission efficiency", indicating that the research on carbon emission efficiency has attracted extensive attention from academia [ 54 , 55 ]. The keyword with the longest emergence time is "greenhouse gas (GHG)", an active theme from 2005 to 2013 [ 56 , 57 ]. According to burst detection, the frontier development in China’s carbon emissions can be divided into three stages.…”

“…According to burst detection, the frontier development in China’s carbon emissions can be divided into three stages. (1) Many emergent words have appeared since 2005, including GHG [ 56 ], emission inventory [ 58 ], and international trade [ 59 ], suggesting that research on China’s carbon emissions has gradually attracted scholarly attention. Although some accomplishments were achieved in certain domains, the research was still in its initial and exploratory stages.…”

“…Although some accomplishments were achieved in certain domains, the research was still in its initial and exploratory stages. The research contents and methods were relatively superficial and single, and further in-depth and specific discussions were required [ 56 ]. (2) Since 2009, research on China’s carbon emissions has developed rapidly, with many keywords emerging, such as the computable general equilibrium model [ 60 ], energy efficiency [ 61 ], shadow price [ 61 ], and the STIRPAT model [ 62 ].…”