Impact of Geology on Seasonal Hydrological Predictability in Alpine Regions by a Sensitivity Analysis Framework

Abstract

Catchment geology has a major influence on the relative impact of the main seasonal hydrological predictability sources (initial conditions (IC), climate forcing (CF)) on the forecast skill as it defines the system’s persistence. A quantification of its effect, though, on the contribution of the predictability sources to the forecast skill has not been previously investigated. In this work we apply the End Point Blending (EPB) framework to assess the contribution of IC and CF to the seasonal streamflow forecast skill over two catchments that represent the end members of a set of catchments of contrasting geology, hence contrasting hydrological response: a highly-permeable, hence slow-responding catchment and a fast-responding catchment of low permeability. Our results show that the contribution of IC in the slow-responding catchment is higher by up to 44% for forecasts initialized in winter and spring and by up to 21% for forecasts initialized in summer. IC are important for up to 4 months of lead in the slow-responding catchment and 2 months of lead in the flashier catchment. Our analysis highlights the added value of the EPB in comparison to the traditional ESP/revESP approach for identifying the sources of seasonal hydrological predictability, on the basis of catchment geology.

Analysis of Cusp Catastrophic Model for Vertical Stability of Drilling Shaft Lining

“…e higher the height of the counterweight water was, the higher the critical depth was. e sensitivity of each influencing factor was also important to the result and was calculated, respectively [47][48][49][50]. For the reinforced concrete shaft lining, the sensitivity coefficients of the self-weight per unit length, elastic modulus, inner diameter, and height of the counterweight water were: 0.3117, 0.3113, 0.2777, 0.1018.…”

Runoff Prediction in Different Forecast Periods via a Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Ganjiang River Basin, China

“…[3,4]. Another significant aspect of runoff prediction is providing early warnings for floods and drought, which are strongly correlated with certain meteorological factors, such as precipitation and runoff, as indicated by relevant studies [5,6]. However, due to its vulnerability to climate change and human activities, runoff has the characteristics of being highly nonlinear, unstable and complicated [7].…”

Flood Inundation and Streamflow Changes in the Kabul River Basin under Climate Change

“…For instance, a change in climate will alter the precipitation regime in terms of its intensity, frequency, and magnitude, which altogether will affect not only the overall water yield or its timings but also how it is received, particularly in the form of floods [3]. Since high-altitude regions are more vulnerable to climate change owing to the well-established elevation-dependent warming, the intensity and frequency of these natural hazards are also expected to be severe under changing climate [2,4].…”