Impact of Future Climate Change (2020–2059) on the Hydrological Regime in the Heihe River Basin in Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract

Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and associated social and economic activities (such as farming) is important for water resources management in any river basin. In this study, we used the popular Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Heihe River basin located within Shaanxi Province, China, in terms of runoff and streamflow. The results show that over the next 40 years (starting in 2020 till 2059), changes in the averaged annual runoff ratio are approximately [Formula: see text]11.0%, [Formula: see text]6.4%, 7.2%, and 20.4% for each of the next four consecutive decades as compared to the baseline period (2010–2019). The predicted annual runoff demonstrates an increase trend after a reduction and may result in increased drought and flood risk in the Heihe River basin. To minimize or mitigate these impacts, various adaptation methods have been proposed for the study area, such as stopping irrigation, flood control operation; reasonable development and utilization of regional underground water sources should be implemented in Zhouzhi county and Huyi region in the lower reaches of Heihe River basin.

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

“…In Equation 4, Q s is the average simulated runoff during the disturbance period. Furthermore, the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to changes of the river basin runoff could be expressed by Equations (6) and 7, respectively.…”

“…In Equations (6) and 7, µ c and µ h represent the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes of the runoff in the basin, respectively. The change in observed runoff data between the base period and disturbance period allowed overall change in runoff to be calculated using Equation (2).…”

“…China, as the world's most populous country, hosts approximately 18% of the global population (1.4 billion people), but with only 6% of global freshwater resources. China therefore faces long-term challenges related to water deficits and an uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources [4][5][6]. In recent years, water stress in China has been exacerbated by the deterioration of the ecological environment, and by the use of outdated and water inefficiency Land 2020, 9, 291 2 of 20 technology in industry and agriculture, serious waste of water, and water pollution; thereby, seriously limiting national economic development in China [7,8].…”