Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

Zhou, Tianyang; Wu, Pute; Sun, Shikun; Li, Xiaolei; Wang, Yubao; Luan, Xiaobo

doi:10.3390/w9060429

Cited by 43 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…From the other side, unpredictable climate features such as droughts can have drastic impacts on food security regardless of the arable land availability [27]. Meanwhile, the sustainability of irrigated agriculture is also challenged by the rising water demand from urbanization and ecological civilization construction and water pollution [28]. Therefore, we need to revise the RCBF policy from the perspective of ensuring food security, not grain security.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Arable Land Alone Ensure Food Security? The Concept of Arable Land Equivalent Unit and Its Implications in Zhoushan City, China

Tan

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The requisition-compensation balance of farmlands (RCBF) is a strict Chinese policy that aims to ensure food security. However, the process of supplementing arable land has substantially damaged the ecological environment through the blind development of grasslands, woodlands, and wetlands to supplement arable land. Can arable land alone ensure food security? To answer this question, this study introduced the concepts of arable land equivalent unit (ALEU) and food equivalent unit (FEU) based on the idea of food security. Zhoushan City in Zhejiang Province, China was selected as the research area. This study analyzed the ALEU supply and demand capabilities in the study area and presented the corresponding policy implications for the RCBF improvement. The results showed that the proportion of ALEU from arable land and waters for aquaculture is from 46:54 in 2009 to 31:69 in 2015, thereby suggesting that aquaculture waters can also be important in food security. Under three different living standards (i.e., adequate food and clothing, well-off, and affluence), ALEU from arable land can barely meet the needs of the permanent resident population in the study area. However, ALEU from aquaculture waters can provide important supplementation. Therefore, we suggest that food supply capability from land types other than the arable land be taken seriously. Furthermore, RCBF can be improved with ALEU as core of the balance.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Arable Land Alone Ensure Food Security? The Concept of Arable Land Equivalent Unit and Its Implications in Zhoushan City, China

Tan

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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“…The detailed downscaling by the SDSM is discussed in Zhou et al (). The R 2 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( E ) are the factors employed to evaluate the simulation results, and it turns out that the R 2 and E values of the climatic factors are greater than 0.85, indicating that the SDSM is feasible and practical for use in the study area.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of future climate and agricultural land‐use changes on regional agricultural water use in a large irrigation district of northwest China

Sun

Zhou

et al. 2019

Land Degrad Dev

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Agricultural sectors are facing various environmental threats, such as land degradation and water resource depletion. Agricultural water use and cropping patterns are closely linked to each other, with both related to the regional climate. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate and agricultural land-use changes on agricultural water consumption in the Hetao Irrigation District (HID), China. The results show that owing to an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, the future climate in the research area will become warmer and dryer, which will increase the water demand of crops. Future climate in the HID will lead to a 10.5% increase in total irrigation water demand under a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and a 6.9% increase under a scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions. Results of the grey prediction modeling indicate that the amount of water allocated to the agricultural sector will decrease, which will make it difficult to meet crop irrigation demands. The results of the gray model also show that the cropping pattern in the HID will vary over time, and the proportion of the area of cash crops will increase by 5.3% during the next decade. Regional agricultural water use can be reduced by adjusting the cropping pattern under irrigation water limitations. Meanwhile, the saved water can be used for soil desalination in cultivated land in the HID.Consequently, adjusting the cropping pattern is a nature-based solution by which to address climate change and guarantee the sustainable use of regional water and land resources.

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“…There are therefore limitations due to the uncertainty in various climate change scenarios [16]. Zhou et al (2017) studied the future effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement in the Hetao irrigation district, China. This region is one of the largest irrigation districts in addition to being an important commodity grain production base in China.…”

Section: Adapting Strategies For Agricultural Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This region is one of the largest irrigation districts in addition to being an important commodity grain production base in China. The results show that the crop irrigation requirement will increase because of the increase of the crop evapotranspiration and the decrease of effective precipitation [17]. Dlamini et al (2017) evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia.…”

Section: Adapting Strategies For Agricultural Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only two studies [9,11] identify, propose, discuss, and develop an adaptation scenario. Five other studies [10,14,[16][17][18] belong more properly to the category "Climate change impact studies". The last three studies [24][25][26] analyze changes that have occurred in the climate and with water resources in the recent past decades, without developing any future scenarios.…”

Section: Studies For the Development Of Adaptation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources: Criteria for Research

Salerno

2017

Water

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Abstract:The Paris Agreement presents new fields of research related to the adaptation strategies to climate change. A challenge for future research consists in developing context-specific guidelines to support adaptation. This Special Issue on "Adaptation strategy to climate change for water resources" is born in this context. It contains 15 scientific studies facing a diversity of issues inherent to the adaptation strategies for water resources. This editorial analyses how the authors of this collection of papers decided to develop and present their research in order to identify criteria to contribute defining, in a near future, standardized approaches and practices for adaptation studies. Papers have been categorized in two major fields: "Studies for the development of adaptation scenarios" and "Studies for the development of adaptation solutions". Papers belonging to both categories are generally found missing to treat the 'uncertainty' issues arising and the implementation of the proposed adaptation strategies. Studies investigating future adaptation scenarios are generally found to be unbalanced in favor of the assessment of future impacts on water resources and less towards the provision of adaptation scenarios. When these studies do not provide elements to manage the specific uncertainty related to the proposed adaptation solutions, at least exploring the uncertainty related to the climatic and impact scenarios is strongly recommended. Studies providing methodological and/or procedural examinations on adaptation solutions are recommended to suitably report the climatic, environmental, and social context for which the action has been developed. A reduction of uncertainty and an easier implementation of proposed measures could be induced from this.

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Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

Cited by 43 publications

References 14 publications

Can Arable Land Alone Ensure Food Security? The Concept of Arable Land Equivalent Unit and Its Implications in Zhoushan City, China

Can Arable Land Alone Ensure Food Security? The Concept of Arable Land Equivalent Unit and Its Implications in Zhoushan City, China

Impacts of future climate and agricultural land‐use changes on regional agricultural water use in a large irrigation district of northwest China

Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources: Criteria for Research

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