Impact of foot-and-mouth disease on pork and chicken prices in Central Luzon, Philippines

Abao, Lary Nel B.; Kono, Hiroichi; Gunarathne, Anoma; Promentilla, Rolando R.; Gaerlan, Manolita Z.

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.12.005

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…In a largely backyard farming sector, FMD outbreaks caused pork and chicken wholesale prices to drop by about 15% affecting producers, traders, processors and retailers (Abao et al, 2014)…”

Section: Philippinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Foot‐and‐mouth disease impacts on the wider economy affecting those that do not keep livestock. The disease, and its control, influence the demand for certain goods and services, and alter the supply and prices of finished livestock and meat (Abao et al., ). These sector level impacts have been captured by assessments of outbreaks in FMD‐free countries (Buetre et al., ), yet are rarely described in the endemic setting.…”

Section: Fmd Smallholder Impact: How Can We Find Out More?mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact on Smallholders - What Do We Know, What Don't We Know and How Can We Find Out More?

Knight-Jones

McLaws²,

Rushton

2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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SummaryFoot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) endemic regions contain three‐quarters of the world's FMD susceptible livestock and most of the world's poor livestock keepers. Yet FMD impact on smallholders in these regions is poorly understood. Diseases of low mortality can exert a large impact if incidence is high. Modelling and field studies commonly find high FMD incidence in endemic countries. Sero‐surveys typically find a third of young cattle are sero‐positive, however, the proportion of sero‐positive animals that developed disease, and resulting impact, are unknown. The few smallholder FMD impact studies that have been performed assessed different aspects of impact, using different approaches. They find that FMD impact can be high (>10% of annual household income). However, impact is highly variable, being a function of FMD incidence and dependency on activities affected by FMD. FMD restricts investment in productive but less FMD‐resilient farming methods, however, other barriers to efficient production may exist, reducing the benefits of FMD control. Applying control measures is costly and can have wide‐reaching negative impacts; veterinary‐cordon‐fences may damage wildlife populations, and livestock movement restrictions and trade bans damage farmer profits and the wider economy. When control measures are ineffective, farmers, society and wildlife may experience the burden of control without reducing disease burden. Foot‐and‐mouth disease control has benefitted smallholders in South America and elsewhere. Success takes decades of regional cooperation with effective veterinary services and widespread farmer participation. However, both the likelihood of success and the full cost of control measures must be considered. Controlling FMD in smallholder systems is challenging, particularly when movement restrictions are hard to enforce. In parts of Africa this is compounded by endemically infected wildlife and limited vaccine performance. This paper reviews FMD impact on smallholders in endemic countries. Significant evidence gaps exist and guidance on the design of FMD impact studies is provided.

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“…In a largely backyard farming sector, FMD outbreaks caused pork and chicken wholesale prices to drop by about 15% affecting producers, traders, processors and retailers (Abao et al, 2014)…”

Section: Philippinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Fmd Smallholder Impact: How Can We Find Out More?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact on Smallholders - What Do We Know, What Don't We Know and How Can We Find Out More?

Knight-Jones

McLaws²,

Rushton

2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Time series models have been cited extensively in the literature including in the disciplines of economics, mathematics, epidemiology, finance, meteorology, engineering, and natural sciences to name just a few. However, their application in estimating the cost of animal disease is somewhat limited (28, 29). In these examples, time series models have estimated the impact that a disease outbreak is likely to have on markets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis

et al. 2019

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Traditionally, cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) focus on the direct costs of animal disease, including animal mortality, morbidity, and associated response costs. However, such approaches often fail to capture the wider, dynamic market impacts that could arise. The duration of these market dislocations could last well after an initial disease outbreak. More generally, current approaches also muddle definitions of indirect costs, confusing debate on the scope of the totalities of disease-induced economic impacts. The aim of this work was to clarify definitions of indirect costs in the context of animal diseases and to apply this definition to a time series methodological framework to estimate the indirect costs of animal disease control strategies, using a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Scotland as a case study. Time series analysis is an econometric method for analyzing statistical relationships between data series over time, thus allowing insights into how market dynamics may change following a disease outbreak. First an epidemiological model simulated FMD disease dynamics based on alternative control strategies. Output from the epidemiological model was used to quantify direct costs and applied in a multivariate vector error correction model to quantify the indirect costs of alternative vaccine stock strategies as a result of FMD. Indirect costs were defined as the economic losses incurred in markets after disease freedom is declared. As such, our definition of indirect costs captures the knock-on price and quantity effects in six agricultural markets after a disease outbreak. Our results suggest that controlling a FMD epidemic with vaccination is less costly in direct and indirect costs relative to a no vaccination (i.e., “cull only”) strategy, when considering large FMD outbreaks in Scotland. Our research clarifies and provides a framework for estimating indirect costs, which is applicable to both exotic and endemic diseases. Standard accounting CBAs only capture activities in isolation, ignore linkages across sectors, and do not consider price effects. However, our framework not only delineates when indirect costs start, but also captures the wider knock-on price effects between sectors, which are often omitted from CBAs but are necessary to support decision-making in animal disease prevention and control strategies.

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“…One paper looked at the effect of an FMD outbreak on market prices in the Philippines and found that on‐farm pig prices and wholesale pork prices dropped 12% and 16%, respectively. Despite not being susceptible to FMD, chicken farm and wholesale prices also declined by 21% and 14% respectively (Abao et al., ).…”

Section: Economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 2 - Epidemiology, Wildlife and Economics

Knight-Jones

Robinson

Charleston

et al. 2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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SummaryWe assessed knowledge gaps in foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) research, and in this study, we consider (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) economics. The study took the form of a literature review (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) combined with research updates collected in 2014 from 33 institutes from across the world. Findings were used to identify priority areas for future FMD research. During 2011-2015, modelling studies were dominant in the broad field of epidemiology; however, continued efforts are required to develop robust models for use during outbreaks in FMD-free countries, linking epidemiologic and economics models. More guidance is needed for both the evaluation and the setting of targets for vaccine coverage, population immunity and vaccine field efficacy. Similarly, methods for seroprevalence studies need to be improved to obtain more meaningful outputs that allow comparison across studies. To inform control programmes in endemic countries, field trials assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in extensive smallholder systems should be performed to determine whether FMD can be controlled with quality vaccines in settings where implementing effective biosecurity is challenging. Studies need to go beyond measuring only vaccine effects and should extend our knowledge of the impact of FMD and increase our understanding of how to maximize farmer participation in disease control. Where wildlife reservoirs of virus exist, particularly African Buffalo, we need to better understand when and under what circumstances transmission to domestic animals occurs in order to manage this risk appropriately, considering the impact of control measures on livelihoods and wildlife. For settings where FMD eradication is unfeasible, further ground testing of commodity-based trade is recommended. A thorough review of global FMD control programmes, covering successes and failures, would be extremely valuable and could be used to guide other control programmes.

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Impact of foot-and-mouth disease on pork and chicken prices in Central Luzon, Philippines

Cited by 11 publications

References 9 publications

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact on Smallholders - What Do We Know, What Don't We Know and How Can We Find Out More?

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact on Smallholders - What Do We Know, What Don't We Know and How Can We Find Out More?

Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis

Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 2 - Epidemiology, Wildlife and Economics

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