Impact of environmental factors on the spread of dengue fever in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by the dengue virus of the Flaviviridae family and is responsible for colossal health and economic burden worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the effect of environmental, seasonal, and spatial variations on the spread of dengue fever in Sri Lanka. The study used secondary data of monthly dengue infection and the monthly average of environmental parameters of 26 Sri Lankan regions from January 2015 to December 2019. Besides the descriptive measurements, Kendall's tau_b, Spearman's rho, and Kruskal-Wallis H test have been performed as bivariate analyses. The multivariate generalized linear negative binomial regression model was applied to determine the impacts of meteorological factors on dengue transmission. The aggregate negative binomial regression model disclosed that precipitation (odds ratio: 0.97, p < 0.05), humidity (odds ratio: 1.05, p < 0.01), and air pressure (odds ratio: 1.46, p < 0.01) were significantly influenced the spread of dengue fever in Sri Lanka. The bioclimatic zone is the vital factor that substantially affects the dengue infection, and the wet zone (odds ratio: 6.41, p < 0.05) was more at-risk than the dry zone. The climate season significantly influenced dengue fever transmission, and a higher infection rate was found (odds ratio: 1.46, p < 0.01) in the northeast monsoon season. The findings of this study facilitate policymakers to improve the existing dengue control strategies focusing on the meteorological condition in the local as well as global perspectives.

Dengue Prediction in Latin America Using Machine Learning and the One Health Perspective: A Literature Review

“…For example, whilst environmental and sociological considerations often take a back seat in One Health [ 11 ], they frequently occupy the center stage in epidemiology [ 12 ]. Factors such as mean temperatures and rainfall used in predicting dengue [ 1 ], with a very vague consideration of how they affect the mosquito vectors, are an emergent challenge to be considered [ 13 ].…”

The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis

“…All studies were conducted monthly, and the results showed that precipitation was substantially associated with dengue incidence. Seven studies indicated that temperature is the second most significant climate variable [ [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] ], followed by relative humidity with four studies [ 19 , 21 , 22 , 26 ] and minimum temperature with three studies [ 23 , 24 , 26 ]. Another study listed significant variables like maximum temperature [ 26 ], atmospheric pressure, sky clearness and wind speed [ 20 ].…”

“…Another study listed significant variables like maximum temperature [ 26 ], atmospheric pressure, sky clearness and wind speed [ 20 ]. Most studies were conducted in tropical climates found in Mérida City, México [ 25 ], the Philippines [ 20 , 22 ], and Sri Lanka [ 19 ]. Two studies considered Nakhon Si Thammarat [ 26 ] and Bangkok, Thailand [ 21 ], indicative of the tropical monsoon climate.…”

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dengue Cases in Peninsular Malaysia: A five-year analysis from 2016 to 2020

“…Climate plays a vital role in spreading the dengue virus by interfering with the mosquito life cycle (Faruk et al, 2022). This was supported by Wagner et al, (2020), which found that precipitation assists the larvae development stage and hatches mosquito eggs.…”