Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on MJO over the equatorial western Pacific

Chen, Xiong; Li, Chongyin; Jian, Ling; Ya, Tan

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1649-x

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Recently, Chen et al . () suggested that strong (weak) events of East Asian winter monsoonal northerlies correspond to enhanced (suppressed) convection over the MC and equatorial western Pacific, when MJO is in phase 4. It has been long recognized that strong cold surges in East Asia can trigger the convection in the MC (Chang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, case studies found that the cold surges over West Asia (Wang et al, 2012) or western North Pacific (Hong et al, 2017) may trigger the convective initiation of the MJO during the boreal winter. Recently, Chen et al (2017) suggested that strong (weak) events of East Asian winter monsoonal northerlies correspond to enhanced (suppressed) convection over the MC and equatorial western Pacific, when MJO is in phase 4. It has been long recognized that strong cold surges in East Asia can trigger the convection in the MC (Chang et al, 2005).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Impact of cold surges on the Madden‐Julian oscillation propagation over the Maritime Continent

Pang

Jian

2018

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Whether the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) propagates into the western Pacific or is blocked by the Maritime Continent (MC) can have great impacts on global weather and climate. This study investigates the extratropical circulations associated with the MJO events that propagate across the MC (MJO‐C) and those blocked by the MC (MJO‐B), respectively, during the boreal winter. The results show that there are significant northeasterly anomalies over the South China Sea and tropical western North Pacific when MJO‐C events propagate through the MC. The MJO‐C events are much more likely to be accompanied by cold surges during its propagation over the MC, following the intensification of the Siberian High. This study suggests that cold surges, which have been documented as a trigger of tropical convection, can help the MJO propagate across the MC.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Impact of cold surges on the Madden‐Julian oscillation propagation over the Maritime Continent

Pang

Jian

2018

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the most pronounced climate system in East Asia during boreal winter and is a major factor in modulating wintertime surface air temperatures in this region [ Lau and Li , ]. Besides the surface temperature, cold surges [ Park et al ., ] and fog‐haze days [ Li et al ., ] in East Asia; rainfall in southeastern China [ Zhou , ]; tropical subseasonal (30–90 days) variability, i.e., the Madden‐Julian oscillation [ Madden and Julian , , ; Chen et al ., ]; and even the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon [ Chen et al ., ; Yan et al ., ] are also closely related to the EAWM. The climatic importance of the EAWM necessitates the definition of a simple, dynamically based index for measuring and monitoring the strength and variation of the EAWM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A potential vorticity‐based index for the East Asian winter monsoon

2016

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A novel dynamically based index that reflects the strength of the regional potential vorticity (PV) intrusion on the 300 K isentropic surface is proposed as a reliable measure of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity. The index captures essential aspects of the EAWM, including its climatic influences on East Asia, its continuous weakening trend since the 1980s, and its close relationships with the Siberian high, Arctic Oscillation, and El Niño. The use of a potential vorticity framework enables the definition of a new metric called continuous PV intrusion duration (CPVID), which can be used to monitor and explain wintertime weather extremes like the extreme snowfall event that occurred in south China during January 2008. The CPVID of March is comparable to that of December, indicating that data from this month should be included in estimates of the strength of the EAWM.

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“…The proposed drought prediction model considers the real-time multivariate (RMM) MJO indices. The MJO indices, showing short timescale climate variability, has important implications for drought in East Asia [44,46,47]. Random forest (RF) machine learning was adopted to develop drought prediction models because RF has been used for many remote-sensing applications and has shown better performance than other machine learning approaches in drought-related studies, such as decision trees or boosted regression trees [13,48,49].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Drought on Pentad Scale Using Remote Sensing Data and MJO Index through Random Forest over East Asia

et al. 2018

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Rapidly developing droughts, including flash droughts, have frequently occurred throughout East Asia in recent years, causing significant damage to agricultural ecosystems. Although many drought monitoring and warning systems have been developed in recent decades, the short-term prediction of droughts (within 10 days) is still challenging. This study has developed drought prediction models for a short-period of time (one pentad) using remote-sensing data and climate variability indices over East Asia (20°–50°N, 90°–150°E) through random forest machine learning. Satellite-based drought indices were calculated using the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The real-time multivariate (RMM) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) indices were used because the MJO is a short timescale climate variability and has important implications for droughts in East Asia. The validation results show that those drought prediction models with the MJO variables (r ~ 0.7 on average) outperformed the original models without the MJO variables (r ~ 0.4 on average). The predicted drought index maps showed similar spatial distribution to actual drought index maps. In particular, the MJO-based models captured sudden changes in drought conditions well, from normal/wet to dry or dry to normal/wet. Since the developed models can produce drought prediction maps at high resolution (5 km) for a very short timescale (one pentad), they are expected to provide decision makers with more accurate information on rapidly changing drought conditions.

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Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on MJO over the equatorial western Pacific

Cited by 15 publications

References 40 publications

Impact of cold surges on the Madden‐Julian oscillation propagation over the Maritime Continent

Impact of cold surges on the Madden‐Julian oscillation propagation over the Maritime Continent

A potential vorticity‐based index for the East Asian winter monsoon

Prediction of Drought on Pentad Scale Using Remote Sensing Data and MJO Index through Random Forest over East Asia

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