Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Epidemiology of STDs in China: Based on the GM (1,1) Model

Abstract

Background: It has been reported that COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted on the epidemiological trend of Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) in many countries. However, relevant researches are limited in China. We aimed to analyze the extent of COVID-19 pandemic impact on STDs in China.Methods: The incidence of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea in China from 2008 to 2020 was collected. But only data of these three STDs from 2013 to 2018 were used to establish the Grey Model (1,1) considering about the impact of policies of China. Then we calculated the predictive incidence of each STD in 2019, 2020 and 2021 by the established Model. And then we estimated the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiological changes of STDs by analyzing the difference between the absolute percentage error (APE) of the predictive incidence and actual rate in 2019 and 2020. Results: The incidence of HIV infection and syphilis showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2019 in China, but that for gonorrhea was fluctuant. Of note, the incidence of these three STDs decreased significantly in 2020 compared with that in 2019. The APE of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea in 2020 (20.54%, 15.45% and 60.88%) were about 7 times, 4 times and 2 times of that in 2019 (2.94%, 4.07% and 30.41%). The incidence of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea would be 5.77/100,000, 39.64/100,000 and 13.19/100,000 in 2021 based on our model.Conclusions: Our analysis revealed that the epidemiological trend of STDs in China was significant influenced by COVID-19 pandemic. The result highlights the critical need for transformative strategies in STDs control in the context of the long-term effects of COVID-19 pandemic in the future.

A long trend of sexually transmitted diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China (2010–21)

“…Previous studies [8][9][10]24,31 found that the incidence of STDs decreased dramatically in 2020, which was also found in our research. The IRRs of the five STDs were significantly below one in 2020 compared with 2019, but there was no statistical significance for the IRRs of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and gonorrhoea in 2021 (Table 4).…”

“…The IRRs of the five STDs were significantly below one in 2020 compared with 2019, but there was no statistical significance for the IRRs of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and gonorrhoea in 2021 (Table 4). Many studies 11,13,24 have reported the recovery of the incidence rates for infectious diseases when NPIs were relaxed, and our research also observed three STD incidence levels (hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and gonorrhoea) return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The recovery of the gonorrhoea incidence level was relatively quick compared to the other four STDs, which could be explained by the shorter incubation period (1-14 days) and obvious clinical symptoms when present.…”

“…During the COVID-19 pandemic, many hospitals either closed completely to help fight COVID-19 or restricted personal visits to symptomatic cases. [21][22][23][24] Some STDs, such as HIV infection, gonococcal infections, and urogenital chlamydial infections among women, were often asymptomatic, and screening is required to determine infection. 25 In addition, the susceptible population could avoid or delay routine health visits due to adherence to the NPIs, reducing the exposure to COVID-19.…”