Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate

Khanam, Mariam; Sofia, Giulia; Koukoula, Marika; Lazin, Rehenuma; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Shen, Xinyi; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021

Cited by 35 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…In this context, we suggest employing hydrodynamic models to study event‐based storylines which explore in detail low‐likelihood, high‐impact future plausible events, with an emphasis on plausibility rather than probability (Hazeleger et al., 2015; Shepherd, 2019). Event‐based storylines can be built based on expert knowledge, major past floods (Helaire et al., 2020; Khanam et al., 2021), or near‐misses (Woo, 2021). One could investigate: what would be the societal impact of past fluvial flooding combined with the projected sea‐level rise?…”

Section: Multivariate Event: Future Changes In Compound Coastal Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

et al. 2021

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Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deeplandslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.Plain Language Summary Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still BEVACQUA ET AL.

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Section: Multivariate Event: Future Changes In Compound Coastal Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

et al. 2021

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“…Riverine and coastal floods characterized by the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows can be life threatening and cause infrastructures damage (Nadal et al, 2010;Ganguli et al, 2020;Khanam et al, 2021). This type of flooding was remarkable during hurricane Harvey in Houston-Galveston Bay (Valle-Levinson et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2021b).…”

Section: Coastal and Riverine Floodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

et al. 2021

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Compound extremes pose immense challenges and hazards to communities, and this is particularly true for compound hydrometeorological extremes associated with deadly floods, surges, droughts, and heat waves. To mitigate and better adapt to compound hydrometeorological extremes, we need to better understand the state of knowledge of such extremes. Here we review the current advances in understanding compound hydrometeorological extremes: compound heat wave and drought (hot-dry), compound heat stress and extreme precipitation (hot-wet), cold-wet, cold-dry and compound flooding. We focus on the drivers of these extremes and methods used to investigate and quantify their associated risk. Overall, hot-dry compound extremes are tied to subtropical highs, blocking highs, atmospheric stagnation events, and planetary wave patterns, which are modulated by atmosphere-land feedbacks. Compared with hot-dry compound extremes, hot-wet events are less examined in the literature with most works focusing on case studies. The cold-wet compound events are commonly associated with snowfall and cold frontal systems. Although cold-dry events have been found to decrease, their underlying mechanisms require further investigation. Compound flooding encompasses storm surge and high rainfall, storm surge and sea level rise, storm surge and riverine flooding, and coastal and riverine flooding. Overall, there is a growing risk of compound flooding in the future due to changes in sea level rise, storm intensity, storm precipitation, and land-use-land-cover change. To understand processes and interactions underlying compound extremes, numerical models have been used to complement statistical modeling of the dependence between the components of compound extremes. While global climate models can simulate certain types of compound extremes, high-resolution regional models coupled with land and hydrological models are required to simulate the variability of compound extremes and to project changes in the risk of such extremes. In terms of statistical modeling of compound extremes, previous studies have used empirical approach, event coincidence analysis, multivariate distribution, the indicator approach, quantile regression and the Markov Chain method to understand the dependence, greatly advancing the state of science of compound extremes. Overall, the selection of methods depends on the type of compound extremes of interests and relevant variables.

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“…The free software HEC-RAS 6.0 version is capable of 2D unsteady flow simulation [47]. HEC-RAS 2D modelling and mapping had already been implemented successfully in several recent studies [18,24,[48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. Moreover, some studies tested the recent capabilities of the updated HEC-RAS [55] and the efficiency of the two-dimensional (2D) HEC-RAS model [56].…”

Section: Hydraulic-hydrodynamic Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Forecast Skill of a Hydrometeorological Modelling System in Greece

et al. 2021

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A hydrometeorological forecasting system has been operating at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) since September 2015. The system consists of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS hydraulic–hydrodynamic model. The system provides daily 120 h weather forecasts focusing on Greece (4 km horizontal resolution) and hydrological forecasts for the Spercheios and Evrotas rivers in Greece (100 m horizontal resolution), also providing flash flood inundation forecasts when needed (5 m horizontal resolution). The main aim of this study is to evaluate precipitation forecasts produced in a 4-year period (September 2015–August 2019) using measurements from meteorological stations across Greece. Water level forecasts for the Evrotas and Spercheios rivers were also evaluated using measurements from hydrological stations operated by the IMBRIW. Moreover, the forecast skill of the chained meteorological–hydrological–hydraulic operation of the system was investigated during a catastrophic flash flood in the Evrotas river. The results indicated that the system provided skillful precipitation and water level forecasts. The best evaluation results were yielded during rainy periods. They also demonstrated that timely flash flood forecasting products could benefit flood warning and emergency responses due to their efficiency and increased lead time.

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Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate

Cited by 35 publications

References 56 publications

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes: Drivers, Mechanisms and Methods

Evaluating the Forecast Skill of a Hydrometeorological Modelling System in Greece

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