Abstract. Physically consistent descriptions of land surface hydrology are
crucial for planning human activities that involve freshwater resources,
especially in light of the expected climate change scenarios. We assess how
atmospheric forcing data uncertainties affect land surface model (LSM)
simulations by means of an extensive evaluation exercise using a number of
state-of-the-art remote sensing and station-based datasets. For this
purpose, we use the CO2-responsive ISBA-A-gs LSM coupled with the CNRM version of
the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (CTRIP) river routing model. We perform
multi-forcing simulations over the Euro-Mediterranean area (25–75.5∘ N, 11.5∘ W–62.5∘ E,
at 0.5∘ resolution) from 1979 to 2012. The model is forced using four atmospheric
datasets. Three of them are based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). The
fourth dataset is independent from ERA-Interim: PGF, developed at Princeton
University. The hydrological impacts of atmospheric forcing uncertainties
are assessed by comparing simulated surface soil moisture (SSM), leaf area
index (LAI) and river discharge against observation-based datasets: SSM from
the European Space Agency's Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy
and Climate Change Initiative projects (ESA-CCI), LAI of the Global
Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), and Global Runoff Data
Centre (GRDC) river discharge. The atmospheric forcing data are also
compared to reference datasets. Precipitation is the most uncertain forcing
variable across datasets, while the most consistent are air temperature and
SW and LW radiation. At the monthly timescale, SSM and LAI simulations are
relatively insensitive to forcing uncertainties. Some discrepancies with
ESA-CCI appear to be forcing-independent and may be due to different
assumptions underlying the LSM and the remote sensing retrieval algorithm.
All simulations overestimate average summer and early-autumn LAI. Forcing
uncertainty impacts on simulated river discharge are larger on mean values
and standard deviations than on correlations with GRDC data. Anomaly
correlation coefficients are not inferior to those computed from raw monthly
discharge time series, indicating that the model reproduces inter-annual
variability fairly well. However, simulated river discharge time series
generally feature larger variability compared to measurements. They also
tend to overestimate winter–spring high flows and underestimate
summer–autumn low flows. Considering that several differences emerge between
simulations and reference data, which may not be completely explained by
forcing uncertainty, we suggest several research directions. These range
from further investigating the discrepancies between LSMs and remote sensing
retrievals to developing new model components to represent physical and
anthropogenic processes.