Impact of Climate on the Expansion of Dengue Fever in an Endemic Urban Area

Abstract

Dengue is one of the most important arboviruses worldwide, with currently approximately 2.5 billion people at risk of becoming infected, mainly in tropical countries. The present study evaluated the influence of climatic variables on the incidence of dengue fever in an endemic urban area. A time series study of cases was carried out with all confirmed cases of dengue fever in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from 2001 to 2021. The climatic explanatory variables were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology. The analysis was performed using a generalized linear regression model with three scenarios: a no-lag model, 1-month lag model (1 month earlier) and 2-month lag model (2 months earlier). In the no-lag model, the maximum temperature was associated with an increase in the monthly incidence of dengue (IRR: 1.5). In the 1- and 2-month lag models, the monthly average temperature was associated with an increase in incidence (IRR: 1.9 in both). Our results suggest that temperature contributed to the increase in the incidence of dengue, and an increase of 1 °C could increase the incidence of the disease by approximately 90%. Thus, temperature monitoring can direct efforts towards prevention and control of the disease.