Impact of Climate on Energy Sector in Economic Analysis

Warren, Henry E.; LeDuc, Sharon K.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1981)020<1431:iocoes>2.0.co;2

Cited by 35 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Similarly, Sailor and colleagues estimate the sensitivity of state-level electricity and natural gas consumption to temperature variables and find considerable variation (Sailor and Munoz, 1997;Sailor et al, 1998). Warren and LeDuc (1981) statistically relate natural gas consumption to prices and heating degree-days in a nine-region model of the US and find noticeable regional differences. Scott et al (1994) use a building energy simulation model to assess the impacts of climate change on commercial building energy demand in four US cities (Seattle, Minneapolis, Phoenix, and Shreveport).…”

Section: Regional Energy Demand Sensitivitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The link between climatic variables and energy use has been widely documented and utilized to explain energy consumption and to assist energy suppliers with short-term planning (Quayle and Diaz, 1979;Le Comte and Warren, 1981;Warren and LeDuc, 1981;Downton et al, 1988;Badri, 1992;Lehman, 1994;Lam, 1998;Yan, 1998;Morris, 1999;Pardo et al, 2002). However, to date few analyses address the longer-term implications of climate change for energy use patterns and investment decisions.…”

Section: Energy Demand Sensitivity To Climate and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

et al. 2005

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Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles.In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

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Section: Regional Energy Demand Sensitivitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Energy Demand Sensitivity To Climate and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

et al. 2005

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“…Most of this HDD-based research utilized an HDD reference temperature of ϩ65°F (ϩ18.3°C), because HDDs are intended to measure the deviation from a "comfortable" temperature. Those studies included Quayle and Diaz (1980), Warren and LeDuc (1981), Guttman (1983), Downton et al (1988), Lehman and Warren (1994), and Heim et al (2003).…”

Section: B Previous Research and The Current Investigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study did not extend to residential natural gas consumption because heating oil and electricity are the predominant home heating sources in the Asheville area. Warren and LeDuc (1981) used HDDs as one of the predictors in a multiple regression model of regional natural gas consumption, but because additional predictors such as gas price also were incorporated, the correlation between gas consumption and HDDs alone was not reported. HDD quantification for regional and national levels was performed by Guttman (1983) and Downton et al (1988), who determined the effect of population shifts on population-weighted HDDs.…”

Section: B Previous Research and The Current Investigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States

Timmer

Lamb

2007

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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The increased U.S. natural gas price volatility since the mid-to-late-1980s deregulation generally is attributed to the deregulated market being more sensitive to temperature-related residential demand. This study therefore quantifies relations between winter (November-February; December-February) temperature and residential gas consumption for the United States east of the Rocky Mountains for 1989-2000, by region and on monthly and seasonal time scales. State-level monthly gas consumption data are aggregated for nine multistate subregions of three Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts of the U.S. Department of Energy. Two temperature indices [days below percentile (DBP) and heating degree-days (HDD)] are developed using the Richman-Lamb fine-resolution (ϳ1°latitude-longitude) set of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 1949-2000. Temperature parameters/values that maximize DBP/ HDD correlations with gas consumption are identified. Maximum DBP and HDD correlations with gas consumption consistently are largest in the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley region on both monthly (from ϩ0.89 to ϩ0.91) and seasonal (from ϩ0.93 to ϩ0.97) time scales, for which they are based on daily maximum temperature. Such correlations are markedly lower on both time scales (from ϩ0.62 to ϩ0.80) in New England, where gas is less important than heating oil, and on the monthly scale (from ϩ0.55 to ϩ0.75) across the South because of low January correlations. For the South, maximum correlations are for daily DBP and HDD indices based on mean or minimum temperature. The percentiles having the highest DBP index correlations with gas consumption are slightly higher for northern regions than across the South. This is because lower (higher) relative (absolute) temperature thresholds are reached in warmer regions before home heating occurs. However, these optimum percentiles for all regions are bordered broadly by surrounding percentiles for which the correlations are almost as high as the maximum. This consistency establishes the robustness of the temperature-gas consumption relations obtained. The reference temperatures giving the highest HDD correlations with gas consumption are lower for the colder northern regions than farther south where the temperature range is truncated. However, all HDD reference temperatures greater than ϩ10°C (ϩ15°C) yield similar such correlations for northern (southern) regions, further confirming the robustness of the findings. This robustness, coupled with the very high correlation magnitudes obtained, suggests that potentially strong gas consumption predictability would follow from accurate seasonal temperature forecasts.

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“…Relationships between demand and temperature have been developed (e.g. Warren and LeDuc, 1981;Robinson, 1997) which indicate that demand is at a minimum at temperatures near 18Á3 C. As a consequence, heating and cooling degree days with an 18Á3 C base have long been used for temporal and spatial comparisons of demand (Downton et al, 1988). Demand commonly rises more rapidly with rising temperatures and increased air conditioning needs than with falling temperatures and an increase in heating requirements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and hydropower generation

Robinson

1997

Int. J. Climatol.

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Impact of Climate on Energy Sector in Economic Analysis

Cited by 35 publications

References 2 publications

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States

Climate change and hydropower generation

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