Impact of climate change on the distribution of Sal species

Mishra, Shambhu Nath; Gupta, H. S.; Kulkarni, Nitin

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101244

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…GHG emissions can be reduced by preventing forest degradation and restoring the destroyed regions through tree planting and ecosystem restoration methods (Rindyastuti et al 2018). Hence, understanding and identifying the plant species' distribution shift in response to climate changes would be helpful in formulating conservation and management plans (Mishra et al 2021, Samal et al 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Nitin Saraf,

Srivastava,

Munoz

et al. 2024

Nordic Journal of Botany

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The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi‐dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Nitin Saraf,

Srivastava,

Munoz

et al. 2024

Nordic Journal of Botany

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“…Of the estimated 2.19 × 10 18 kg of carbon in the total biosphere carbon pool, a significant portion, approximately 1.0 × 10 18 kg, is sequestered in forest ecosystems, which hold about 50% more carbon than the current atmospheric pool [3]. Predictions suggest a mean global temperature rise of 0.3-1.7 • C to 2.6-4.8 • C by 2100, posing significant challenges to these ecosystems, including potential productivity decline, biodiversity loss, and forest degradation [4][5][6][7]. Trees mitigate varied responses to global warming [8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation of Tree Species in the Greater Khingan Range under Climate Change: Ecological Strategy Differences between Larix gmelinii and Quercus mongolica

Du,

Wang,

et al. 2024

Forests

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Global warming significantly affects forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes, altering tree growth, productivity, and spatial distribution. Additionally, spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists in the responses of different tree species to climate change. This research focuses on two key species in China’s Greater Khingan Range: Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen. (Pinaceae) and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (Fagaceae). We utilized a Maxent model optimized by the kuenm R package to predict the species’ potential habitats under various future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) considering three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We analyzed 313 distribution records and 15 environmental variables and employed geospatial analysis to assess habitat requirements and migration strategies. The Maxent model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.921 for Quercus mongolica and 0.985 for Larix gmelinii. The high accuracy was achieved by adjusting the regularization multipliers and feature combinations. Key factors influencing the habitat of Larix gmelinii included the mean temperature of the coldest season (BIO11), mean temperature of the warmest season (BIO10), and precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17). Conversely, Quercus mongolica’s habitat suitability was largely affected by annual mean temperature (BIO1), elevation, and annual precipitation (BIO12). These results indicate divergent adaptive responses to climate change. Quercus mongolica’s habitable area generally increased in all scenarios, especially under SSP5-8.5, whereas Larix gmelinii experienced more complex habitat changes. Both species’ distribution centroids are expected to shift northwestward. Our study provides insights into the divergent responses of coniferous and broadleaf species in the Greater Khingan Range to climate change, contributing scientific information vital to conserving and managing the area’s forest ecosystems.

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“…It can be classified as deciduous, semi-deciduous, or evergreen. Sal trees are found in the southern region of the Himalayas, extending from Myanmar in the east to Nepal, India, and Bangladesh (Mishra et al, 2021). Sal is a versatile tree species that is categorized as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree diversity and regeneration dynamics toward forest conservation and environmental sustainability: A case study from Nawabganj Sal Forest, Bangladesh

Jubair,

Rahman,

Sarmin

et al. 2023

JASE

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The objective of this study was to examine the regeneration dynamics and population structure of the most prevalent tree species, Shorea robusta (Sal), alongside four other dominant tree species (Tectona grandis, Syzygium cumini, Trema orientale, and Cassia fistula) in the Nawabganj Sal Forest in Bangladesh. The regeneration status and tree diversity of all documented tree species were assessed using a simple random sampling technique. Among the 30 species, 5 species (Shorea robusta, Tectona grandis, Trema orientale, Gmelina arborea, and Artocarpus heterophyllus) exhibited favorable regeneration state, whereas 15 species had moderate regeneration status. However, the absence of the condition 'no regeneration' was due to the absence of the adult stage, which resulted in the absence of seedlings and saplings. The quantity of seedlings was greater during the rainy season compared to the dry season. The girth class distribution of Shorea robusta and all other studied tree species combined exhibited a reverse J-shaped population curve. There was a decline in tree density as the girth class increased, and trees with a larger girth class accounted for 34 individuals per hectare, indicating a strong ongoing regeneration capability. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index, Simpson's dominance index, Pielou's evenness index, and Margalaf's species richness index had values of 0.223, 0.937, 0.077, and 2.249, respectively. These values imply a limited diversity of tree species in the examined forest. Shorea robusta has the highest dominance (m²/ha), followed by Tectona grandis (0.091), Syzygium cumini (0.087), Trema orientale (0.022), and Cassia fistula (0.008). The cumulative basal area of the tree species examined amounted to 40.04 m²/ha, with Shorea robusta accounting for 39.81 m²/ha. This indicates that Sal is the prevailing tree species in the forest. Nevertheless, this study offers fundamental data regarding the current condition of the tropical Sal Forest toward forest conservation and environmental sustainability.

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Impact of climate change on the distribution of Sal species

Cited by 16 publications

References 43 publications

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Adaptation of Tree Species in the Greater Khingan Range under Climate Change: Ecological Strategy Differences between Larix gmelinii and Quercus mongolica

Tree diversity and regeneration dynamics toward forest conservation and environmental sustainability: A case study from Nawabganj Sal Forest, Bangladesh

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