Impact of Climate Change on Maximum Sustained Wind Radius and its Associated Storm Surge Estimation along the Coast of Bangladesh

Abstract

This research is a basic study on cyclones. The changing behaviour of storm surge in the Bay of Bengal due to the impact of climatic changes has been analyzed in this study. Certain characteristics of cyclones, such as the maximum sustained wind radius, have been analyzed, and their effect due to climatic change has been determined. The correlation between the maximum sustained wind radius and surge height was observed for this purpose. To accurately determine surge height, the vertically integrated shallow water wave model equation was employed, and it was solved using the semi-implicit finite difference method through the Arakawa-C grid. The surge model was performed by increasing and decreasing its wind radius by 10% to 20%, based on changes in the maximum sustained wind radius due to the effects of climate change. A strong conclusion was reached from the obtained results, indicating a significant effect of the maximum sustained wind radius on storm surge. But if it increases, there is a visible change in storm in some area of the coast of Bangladesh. For example, 1% increase in wind radius, the surge height increases by 0.032m, where the storm strikes. In some areas far away from where the storm hits the rising rate of the surge height is much lower. Finally, it may be stated that the surge height is affected by the maximum sustained wind radius and that it is altered by climatic impacts.