Impact of climate change on UK estuaries: A review of past trends and potential projections

Robins, Peter; Skov, Martin W.; Lewis, Matt; Giménez, Luis; Davies, Alan M.; Malham, Shelagh K.; Neill, Simon P.; McDonald, James E.; Whitton, Timothy A.; Jackson, Suzanna E.; Jago, C. F.

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2015.12.016

Cited by 205 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 173 publications

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“…Under changing climate and sea-level rise, the methods and results presented here could change due to changes in tidal range, which would alter tide-surge interaction (Robins et al 2016). Deeper water will change frictional influence, and the tipping point between the effect of funnelling and friction effect is likely to change.…”

Section: Implications For Local Management Needs In the Severn Estuarmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extreme sea levels, caused by the combination of astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges, are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructure (Elliott et al 2014;Quinn et al 2014;Webster et al 2014;Prime et al 2015). This is of particular significance in hyper-tidal estuaries, where tidal range exceeds 6 m (Davies 1964;Robins et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Lyddon

Brown

Leonardi

et al. 2018

Estuaries and Coasts

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Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide.

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Section: Implications For Local Management Needs In the Severn Estuarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Lyddon

Brown

Leonardi

et al. 2018

Estuaries and Coasts

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“…Certainly, the regulation of microbial water quality standards, which is linked to culturable counts of FIOs, will be challenged due to the likelihood of increasing frequency of storms under a changing climate. Storms, and resulting high energy flows of runoff, often result in elevated FIO counts in receiving waters because of more frequent spills from sewage overflows and contributions from diffuse sources in agricultural catchments9.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of seasonal meteorological variables on E. coli persistence in livestock faeces and implications for environmental and human health

Oliver

Page

2016

Sci Rep

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Agriculture contributes significant volumes of livestock faeces to land. Understanding how faecal microbes respond to shifts in meteorological patterns of contrasting seasons is important in order to gauge how environmental (and human health) risks may alter under a changing climate. The aim of this study was to: (i) quantify the temporal pattern of E. coli growth within dairy faeces post defecation; and (ii) derive E. coli seasonal population change profiles associated with contrasting environmental drivers. Evaluation of the die-off dynamics of E. coli revealed that a treatment mimicking drought and warming conditions significantly enhanced persistence relative to E. coli in faeces that were exposed to field conditions, and that this pattern was consistent across consecutive years. The internal temperature of faeces was important in driving the rate of change in the E. coli population in the immediate period post defecation, with most E. coli activity (as either die-off or growth) occurring at low dry matter content. This study highlighted that the use of seasonal E. coli persistence profiles should be approached with caution when modelling environmental and human health risks given the increased likelihood of atypical seasonal meteorological variables impacting on E. coli growth and die-off.

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“…As atmospheric warming changes hydrological cycles, changes in local precipitation patterns are predicted to lead to altered river flows. While specific predictions on changing river flow rates vary geographically, in several regions shifting trends in winter and summer precipitation are expected to generate reduced freshwater flows in summer and increased flows in winter (e.g, Bromirski et al, 2003;Robins et al, 2016) as well as an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events (Diffenbaugh et al, 2005). Shifting rainfall and river flow rates will affect estuarine salinities, turbidity, and the dynamics of chemical contaminant and nutrient inputs, making the species that inhabit these coastal marine ecosystems particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts from the combined influences of climate change and chemical pollution (DeLorenzo, 2015;Schlenk and Lavado, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estuaries have also been identified as one of the marine habitats most vulnerable to climate change (Kennish, 2002;Robinson et al, 2013). Climate change is predicted to result in increasing habitat loss in estuaries from the combined effects of coastal subsidence, erosion and rising sea levels (Kennish, 2002;Robins et al, 2016;Robinson et al, 2013). In addition, estuaries are expected to receive increasing nutrient and sewage inputs leading to eutrophication, which combined with elevated temperature conditions should lead to more frequent hypoxia events (Kennish, 2002;Robins et al, 2016;Sheahan et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Estrogenic and Osmoregulatory Impacts Of Exposure to 4-Nonylphenol Pollution in the Estuarine Arrow Goby, Clevelandia Ios

Johnson¹

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choriogenins, and estrogen receptor esr1 -but not esr2a -in the liver within 72 hrs, and that these transcriptional changes return to pre-exposure levels within 12 days of the termination of 4-NP or E2 exposure. In sum, these findings validate the use of mRNA levels for several estrogen-responsive genes as accurate biomarkers for short-term 4-NP exposure in the arrow goby. In Chapter 2, I evaluated the effects of 4-NP and E2 exposures on the osmoregulatory ability of C. ios. I exposed adult arrow gobies to 4-NP (10 μg/L or 100 μg/L) or E2 (50 ng/L) for 14 days, and then transferred the fish from a 33 ppt salinity (control) environment to either 20 ppt, or 5 ppt conditions. Whole body water content was then measured, and the relative mRNA levels for the ion channels

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Impact of climate change on UK estuaries: A review of past trends and potential projections

Cited by 205 publications

References 173 publications

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Effects of seasonal meteorological variables on E. coli persistence in livestock faeces and implications for environmental and human health

Evaluation of the Estrogenic and Osmoregulatory Impacts Of Exposure to 4-Nonylphenol Pollution in the Estuarine Arrow Goby, Clevelandia Ios

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