Impact of Climate Change on Yields of Major Food Crops in India: Implications for Food Security

Abstract

The study has analysed changes in climate variables, viz. temperature and rainfall during the period 1969-2005 and has assessed their impact on yields of important food crops. A significant rise was observed in mean monthly temperature, but more so during the post-rainy season. The changes in rainfall, however, were not as significant. While an increase in maximum temperature was found to have an adverse effect on the crop yields, a similar increase in minimum temperature had a favourable effect on yields of most crops, but it was not sufficient to fully compensate the damages caused by the rise in maximum temperature. Pigeonpea, rice, chickpea and wheat were more vulnerable to rise in temperature. Rainfall had a positive effect on most crops, but it could not counterbalance the negative effect of temperature. The projections of climate impacts towards 2100 have suggested that with significant changes in temperature and rainfall, the rice yield will be lower by 15 per cent and wheat yield by 22 per cent. Coarse cereals will be affected less, while pulses will be affected more than cereals. If the changes in climate are not significant, damages to crops will be smaller. In the short-run too climate impacts will not be so severe.

Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: Evidence from major crop yields

“…This implies that higher rainfall and maximum temperature would mean lower the rice yield rates. The rice results are not consistent with Gupta et al () but more or less similar with Birthal et al (). The reason for not getting similar results might be the different data series and time periods.…”

“…Using these methods, several studies have assessed the effect of weather change on crop output across the world (for instance see Sarker et al, ; Agba et al, ; Zhang, Zhang, & Chen, ; Sbaouelgi, ; Attiaoui & Boufateh, ). Some of the studies employing the econometric models to examine effects of weather variation on crop productivity in India include Guiteras (), Moorthy, Buermann, and Rajagopal (), Barnwal and Kotani (), Gupta et al (), Birthal et al (), Farook and Kannan (), Nath and Mandal (), and Pal and Mitra (). Lastly, the overview of the literature reported that changes in climate have an adverse effect on food and non‐food production.…”

Impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Sustainable Livelihood Security in Gujarat State of India: A Statistical Exploration

“…In India, agricultural production activities play a significant role to provide SLS, employment opportunities, food security and poverty alleviation, as around 54% Indian workforce are engaged in agricultural [23][24][25]. In India, agricultural sector feeds vast population which stands second on the world.…”

Establishing integrated agriculture-nutrition programmes to diversify household food and diets in rural India

“…The surveyed farm-households had experienced and managed complex and heterogeneous environments to cultivate rain-fed crops using their indigenous knowledge in the past. But recent reported abrupt changes to the local climate (Birthal et al 2014), indicated by fluctuating air temperatures and precipitation, has substantially affected local weather and impacted Kharif crop production. In addition, under marginal growing conditions, local crop varieties have resulted in a loss of competitiveness and lower productivity levels.…”